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Journal titles: ARMED FORCES & SOCIETY --- DYNAMICS OF ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT
Armed Forces & Society
Volume 47, no. 1, September 2021
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Risk Factors Explaining Military Deaths From Suicide, 2008–2017: A Latent Class Analysis by Landes, Scott D.; Wilmoth, Janet M.; London, Andrew S.; Landes, Ann T.. Armed Forces & Society, September 2021, Vol. 47 Issue: Number 1; Abstract: Military suicide prevention efforts would benefit from population-based research documenting patterns in risk factors among service members who die from suicide. We use latent class analysis to analyze patterns in identified risk factors among the population of 2660 active-duty military service members that the Department of Defense Suicide Event Report (DoDSER) system indicates died by suicide between 2008 and 2017. The largest of five empirically derived latent classes was primarily characterized by the dissolution of an intimate relationship in the past year. Relationship dissolution was common in the other four latent classes, but those classes were also characterized by job, administrative, or legal problems, or mental health factors. Distinct demographic and military-status differences were apparent across the latent classes. Results point to the need to increase awareness among mental health service providers and others that suicide among military service members often involves a constellation of potentially interrelated risk factors.; (AN 57930882) |
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Bridging the Gap? Ex-Military Personnel and Military–Civilian Transition Within the Prison Workforce by Turner, Jennifer; Moran, Dominique. Armed Forces & Society, September 2021, Vol. 47 Issue: Number 1; Abstract: Prior research into military–civilian transition has suggested that the Prison Service may be a popular destination for Armed Forces leavers, but the experience of former military personnel within the prison system as prison staff (rather than as Veterans in Custody) has so far been overlooked. As a result, we know very little about their route into prison work. This article reports on a UK study investigating the experience of prison personnel who have previously served in the military and presents the first set of empirical evidence addressing these critical questions. Whilst our findings mirror prevailing assumptions of a relatively seamless transition to post-military careers (and, in particular, those within Protective Service Occupations), few had intended a career in prison work specifically. Such trajectories may influence personal military–civilian transitions, as well as job performance in prison work and, by extension, the everyday lives of prisoners and other prison staff.; (AN 57876676) |
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Neither a Conscript Army nor an All-Volunteer Force: Emerging Recruiting Models by Ben-Ari, Eyal; Rosman, Elisheva; Shamir, Eitan. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: This article develops an analytical model of force composition that combines the advantages of conscription with those of an all-volunteer force. Using Israel as a hypothesis-generating case study, it argues that mandatory military service has undergone changes centered on five key organizing principles: selective conscription, early discharges, elongated lengths of service, forms of voluntary service and differing pay-scales, and other material and non-material incentives for conscripts. These principles are “grafted” onto conscription creating a hybrid, “volunteer-ized” model. The utility of the theoretical model lies in explaining how these principles facilitate mobilizing a needed number or recruits, providing an adequate level of military expertise, as well as maintaining the legitimacy of the armed forces by meeting domestic social, economic, and political expectations about its composition and the use of personnel at its disposal. The system is adaptive and flexible, as shown through the comparisons throughout the paper.; (AN 58418573) |
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Sexual Arenas, Alcohol (Ab)use, and Predatory Leadership: Facilitators of US Military Sexual Violence by Buscha, Connie. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Scholars argue that, historically, military women have not been considered equals to men in kinship and, therefore, have and will likely continue to experience more violence and greater fear of violence. The All-Volunteer Force (AVF) may even foster military sexual violence through sexual arenas in work-home spaces, alcohol (ab)use fueling sexual encounters between colleagues, and predatory leadership. This exploratory, grounded theory study captures insights of women veterans (n= 20) entering service between 1964 and 2016. Full inclusion is alleged, yet military women are objectified and “othered,” targets of sex-based attention, predation, and violence. From these data, military sexual violence (MSV) characterizes the AVF. To mitigate this, a renewed commitment to the US military’s historical ideal of altruistic care is necessary to realize the full inclusion of women and reduce if not eliminate military sexual violence.; (AN 57904228) |
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Managing Threats on the High Seas: The Role of Naval Bases on Reducing Maritime Piracy by Danzell, Orlandrew E.; Mauslein, Jacob A.; Avelar, John D.. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Weak coastal states often lack an adequate, sustained naval presence to monitor and police their territorial waters. Unpatrolled waters, both territorial and otherwise, may provide pirates with substantial financial opportunities that go far beyond any single country. Maritime piracy costs the global economy on average USD 24 billion per year. This research explores the impact of naval bases on acts of piracy to determine if naval presence can decrease the likelihood of piracy. To examine this important economic and national security issue, our research employs a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. We also rely upon a newly constructed time-series dataset for the years 1992–2018. Our study shows that the presence of naval bases is essential in helping maritime forces combat piracy. Policymakers searching for options to combat piracy should find the results of this study especially useful in creating prescriptive approaches that aid in solving offshore problems.; (AN 58435451) |
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Finnish Military Officer Identities and Micro-Political Resistance by Kouri, Suvi. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Drawing on the concept of micro-political resistance, this article presents an empirical analysis of how officers of the Finnish Defence Forces challenge, resist, and reinforce the collective military identities constructed within the prevailing organizational discourses. There is a need for identity work to meet the norms and ideals of the military, but individuals can also work as change agents. Micro-political resistance derives from feelings of otherness as well as conflict between the dominant organizational identities and individuals’ personal interests. This study presents a thematic discourse analysis based on texts written by 108 officers and 12 interviews on the theme of “the ideal soldier.” Three main discourses of micro-political resistance were identified: perceiving the profession of a military officer as a job like any otherrather than a sacred calling, putting family first, and being oneselfinstead of embodying the traditional masculine ideal soldier.; (AN 58418572) |
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Managerialism and the Military: Consequences for the Swedish Armed Forces by Ledberg, Sofia K.; Ahlbäck Öberg, Shirin; Björnehed, Emma. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: This article analyzes civil–military relations and the issue of civilian control through the lens of new managerialism. It illustrates that the means and mechanisms applied by governments to govern the military actually shape its organization and affect its functions in ways not always acknowledged in the civil–military debate. We start by illustrating the gradual introduction of management reforms to the Swedish Armed Forces and the growing focus on audit and evaluation. The article thereafter analyzes the consequences of these managerialist trends for the most central installation of the armed forces–its headquarters. It further exemplifies how such trends affect the work of professionals at the military units. In conclusion, managerialist reforms have not only changed the structure of the organization and the relationship between core and support functions but have also placed limits on the influence of professional judgment.; (AN 57281186) |
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Book Review: of “Faithful Fighters: Identity and Power in the British Indian Army” by Margulies, Max Z.. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; (AN 57839846) |
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Hazardous Duty: Investigating Resistance to Police at the Point of Arrest Among Incarcerated Military Veterans by Morgan, Mark A.; Logan, Matthew W.; Arnio, Ashley N.. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: The link between military service and crime has been a subject of investigation for several decades. Although research has examined the likelihood of arrest, incarceration, and recidivism across military cohorts, relatively little is known about the circumstances surrounding police contact and suspect behavior at the exact moment of arrest. This is a critical oversight given that what transpires during an arrest can have a marked impact on downstream criminal justice outcomes, including access to diversionary programming like veterans treatment courts. Using a nationally representative survey of prison inmates, this study analyzes veteran and nonveteran self-reports of their arrest controlling for a host of relevant demographic, mental health, and criminal history variables. Findings indicate that veterans are significantly less likely to resist the police at arrest. These results provide further support to the sentiment that military culture and training can have a lasting behavioral influence on those who experience it.; (AN 57608580) |
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The Utility of Janowitz’s Political Awareness in Officer Education by Nielsen, Suzanne C.; Liebert, Hugh. Armed Forces & Society, 20210101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: In the pages of this journal, Damon Coletta and Tom Crosbie published a response to our article entitled, “The Continuing Relevance of Morris Janowitz’s The Professional Soldierfor the Education of Officers.” In that article, we argued that Janowitz’s emphasis on the need for political awareness in the U.S. military should receive greater attention in the education of today’s officer corps. Coletta and Crosbie suggest that we are too ready to abandon Samuel Huntington’s classic work, The Soldier and the State. In this continuation of that dialogue, we respond with three clarifications and three substantive disagreements. Huntington and Janowitz offer divergent perspectives on the issues of officer education and “political virtue,” we suggest, and Janowitz’s perspective deserves greater weight that it has traditionally received. Coletta and Crosbie also place greater emphasis on the separability of political and military affairs than is warranted, and Janowitz is more helpful here as well.; (AN 57894470) |
Central Asian Survey
Volume 41, no. 1, January 2022
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‘I dress in silk and velvet’: women, textiles and the textile-text in 1930s Uzbekistan by Roosien, Claire. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p1-21, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIn the 1930s, luxury textiles such as silk and velvet appeared frequently in agitation and propaganda addressed toward women in Uzbekistan. After examining the cultural and material significance of luxury textiles for Central Asian women before collectivization, this article investigates how luxury textiles were used in the effort to mobilize Central Asian women during the years of collectivization and cottonization (c.1929–37). The article concludes with a close reading of several ‘textile-texts’ produced by Central Asian women, focusing particularly on women’s poetry about luxury textiles. The article argues that the discourse of ‘silk and velvet’ tapped into affective resonances rooted in, among other conditions, the local gift economy, Central Asian women’s material conditions, Orientalist discourses and Stakhanovite propaganda. The discourse of silk and velvet thus bolstered hierarchical relations between Central Asian women and the Party–state, while at the same time it generated lateral ties to a public of other Central Asian women. The article relies on research in a variety of archival sources and the Uzbek-language Soviet press, particularly the women’s press.; (AN 59170035) |
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From 'Mercy' to 'Banner of Labour': the Bukharan Jewish press in late Tsarist and early Soviet Central Asia by Loy, Thomas; Levin, Zeev. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p22-40, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper presents the development and transformations of Bukharan Jewish newspapers and periodicals (1910–38) and situates them in the broader Central Asian mediascape. Over a period of 30 years, the Bukharan Jewish press was transformed from a pioneering privately owned enterprise that served the needs of the Jewish communities throughout Central Asia to one owned and regulated by the Soviet state, serving as a tool to transmit propaganda and to shape and educate a predefined ‘national minority group’. The paper argues that the introduction of a Bukharan Jewish press in 1910 was intended to create a modernized language and ethnic awareness among the Jews of Central Asia. In the 1930s, Bukharan Jewish newspapers and journals were radically Sovietized and finally shut down by the state. From then until the collapse of the Soviet Union, no Bukharan Jewish publications appeared in the bloc and the existence of a distinct Central Asian Jewish identity was largely ignored. This case study sheds light on Tsarist and Soviet minorities’ policies and helps us to better understand the various changes experienced and the cultural adaptations made by many ‘minorities’ of Central Asia in the Age of Colonialism.; (AN 59170037) |
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Mongolian Buddhism, science and healing: a modernist legacy by Abrahms-Kavunenko, Saskia. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p41-57, 17p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article looks at how the changing relationship between science and religion from the fin de siècleto the present period continues to influence healing practices in Mongolia. It explores how science and religion, rather than being congenitally antithetical to one another, are frequently co-constitutive. By following a few key historical lineages of spiritualism in their dialogue with the Mongolian cultural region, the article illustrates how ongoing exchanges between science and religion have contributed to changes in contemporary Mongolian urban religious practices. As the article illustrates, science, and/or the idea of science, has resulted in changes to lay religious epistemologies and methodologies. At the same time the prestige of science can be used as a means of underlining the strength of ritual efficacy, particularly within Buddhism. Yet when science or allopathic medicine fails to explain or to heal, science is used as a yardstick against which the transcendent power of ritual becomes evident.; (AN 59170028) |
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Songs of war and despair: two Afghan/Uzbek women’s life history and lament by Niroo, Wolayat Tabasum. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p58-78, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis study explores two adult women’s self-authored and self-composed songs and life history in a north-eastern province of Afghanistan. The women did not sing to entertain the researcher or their visitors. Instead, they sang in the form of lament to express their grief. The author argues that by singing, women create a space in which they lament, communicate with their lost loved ones and criticize political ongoings that resulted in despair. The study also explores how the women cope with their inner feelings and sufferings that are the outcome of more than four decades of civil unrest in the country.; (AN 59170025) |
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Women herders: women’s role and bargaining power in Mongolian herding households by Meurs, Mieke; Amartuvshin, Amarjargal; Banzragch, Otgontugs; Boldbaatar, Myagmasuren; Poyatzis, Georgia. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p79-99, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWomen’s role in herding and their empowerment in Mongolian herding households has been little studied, and their participation in decision-making can have important implications for rural households. We draw on a unique sample of 60 Mongolian herding households carried out in 2017 to provide evidence for how herding work and related decision-making is shared between husbands and wives. We extend previous work by using a much more detailed survey, asking about participation in 22 different activities related to herding and 39 decisions, and by analysing factors associated with greater participation in herding decisions by Mongolian women. We show that most herding tasks are not gendered, and, in many tasks, women contribute more time than men. Women made few herding-related decisions alone, and they participate jointly with their spouses in about half the decisions, many fewer than men. Women who contribute more to herding income through milk and cashmere production have more input into many decisions; more educated women have greater participation in some decisions. These findings suggest policy paths toward greater equality and improved outcomes in Mongolian herding households.; (AN 59170029) |
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The Mongolian semi-presidential constitution and its democratic performance by Sumaadii, Mina; Wu, Yu-Shan. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p100-117, 18p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhile earlier studies of Mongolian democracy focused on actor-based explanations for its success, this study discusses the previously less examined role of Mongolia’s semi-presidential constitution in the process of democratization. It examines how the semi-presidential political system in Mongolia evolved since 1992 and offers an in-depth examination of the Mongolian semi-presidential form of government institutionalized by the 1992 constitution and its subsequent amendments. Based on this, it also addresses the question of whether the Mongolian semi-presidential constitution was a weakness or a strength to democratization. This study argues that at an early stage when the political forces were learning the rules of the game, the constitution was an overall positive influence on democratization. Moreover, the main weaknesses linked to the constitutional design were more likely to be related to weak institutional control mechanisms that could be resolved at a lower level legal framework.; (AN 59170032) |
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The neo-liberal conception of empowerment and its limits: micro-credit experiences of self-employed women in the bazaars of Bishkek by Yazıcı Cörüt, Gözde; Cörüt, İlker. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p118-137, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThrough qualitative research conducted in the bazaars of Bishkek, this paper examines the posited tripartite relationship between the free market, micro-finance and women’s empowerment by focusing on how loans from micro-finance institutions in Bishkek influence the lives of female loanees. The neo-liberal conception of ‘individual autonomy’ and ‘empowerment’, it is argued, may not adequately serve as indicators of actual female empowerment/disempowerment in Bishkek and lead us to fail to recognize moments of self-exploitation and forms of claim-making. The research also underlines the disempowering effects of the affectional burden, that is, the constant sense of anxiety, that the loanees have to manage in order to survive in the neo-liberal business environment, which offers high interest rate loans and exposes the loanees to over-indebtedness. These effects can be followed through the analysis of the role the desire for stability and ‘ontological security’ plays in the formation of the identities/world views of the loanees.; (AN 59170036) |
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The politics of budgetary capture in rentier states: who gets what, when and how in Afghanistan by Qadam Shah, Mohammad. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p138-160, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe literature of fiscal federalism suggests two approaches to explaining the allocation of intergovernmental transfers. First, a normative approach that considers governments as benevolent social planners pursuing normative criteria of efficiency and equity; and second, a public choice approach assuming governments as self-maximizing actors who use intergovernmental transfers to purchase political capital, enhancing their chances of re-election. This paper seeks to test the hypotheses of these two approaches to explain the allocation of discretionary development budget among Afghan provinces during three fiscal years of 2016–17, 2017–18 and 2018–19. Findings indicate Afghanistan’s central government’s approach does not focus to achieve normative criteria of improved participation, predictability, transparency, and equity. Instead, Its central government considers certain political criteria such as political affiliation – ethnic affiliation and alignment with central government policies – political importance, and strength and weakness of local actors. This paper relies on both quantitative and qualitative data to support its arguments.; (AN 59170033) |
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Factors motivating the transfer of university students in Kazakhstan by Kasa, Rita; Ait Si Mhamed, Ali; Ibrasheva, Alima; Mambetalina, Dana; Ivatov, Serik. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p161-179, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe theoretical frameworks developed for, and applied to, the study of student transfer between higher education institutions build on evidence from Western contexts, specifically the United States. The current article contributes to understanding factors that drive student transfer in the Central Asian context, specifically that of Kazakhstan. Through inductive coding of qualitative interviews with undergraduate transfer students in Kazakhstan, this research identifies student-centred factors of social embeddedness, parental influence in higher education decision-making, evolving career choice awareness, strategies for academic success, the quality of teaching and relationship ethics with students. While these factors influencing student transfer in Kazakhstan align with the existing Western context-based literature, the data in this research offer a localized perspective on what these factors mean in the context of a contemporary Central Asian country.; (AN 59170034) |
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Roundtable studying the Anthropocene in Central Asia: the challenge of sources and scales in human–environment relations by Féaux de la Croix, Jeanne; Arzhantseva, Irina; Dağyeli, Jeanine; Dubuisson, Eva-Marie; Härke, Heinrich; Penati, Beatrice; Ueda, Akira; Wooden, Amanda. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p180-203, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe emerging and vibrant field of environmental humanities to date has not received considerable attention in Central Asia. In light of the Anthropocene crises, there is a real urgency for maturing this field and investigating the methodological and epistemological challenges that environmental topics demand, often working across disciplinary habits and time scales. This roundtable brings together Central Asianists from a range of backgrounds to discuss the sources and scales of their investigation, their challenges and potential. The contributors discuss how particular kinds of sources such as climate models, archival manuscripts, ethnographic fieldwork and media analyses have been used to understand environmental changes in the region. In what ways do the traditions of scholars’ disciplinary training guide the scale of analysis? Looking toward the future of environmental humanities in Central Asia, this roundtable suggests paths for developing this vital field of enquiry.; (AN 59170038) |
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Hunza matters: Bordering and ordering between ancient and new Silk Roads by Mostowlansky, Till. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p204-205, 2p; (AN 59170027) |
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The Bukharan crisis: A connected history of 18th century Central Asia by Schamiloglu, Uli. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p206-208, 3p; (AN 59170030) |
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The Silk Roads: A new history of the world by Bechtel, Michael J.. Central Asian Survey, January 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 1 p208-209, 2p; (AN 59170031) |
Civil Wars
Volume 23, no. 4, October 2021
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Conflict versus Disaster-induced Displacement: Similar or Distinct Implications for Security? by Bohnet, Heidrun; Cottier, Fabien; Hug, Simon. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p493-519, 27p; Abstract: ABSTRACTRecent research has found evidence for a linkage between conflict induced-displacement and violence. Yet, displacement is also caused by natural disasters, whose implications for security have until now not received much attention. Drawing on spatial data on flood-induced disasters and forced migration in Africa, we investigate the impact of migration caused by natural disasters on social conflict. We show that disaster-induced displacement differs from conflict-induced displacement and raises distinct security implications. We also consider if areas simultaneously affected by conflict and disaster-induced migration are particularly at risk of conflict. The results suggest that there is no such amplifying effect.; (AN 58820239) |
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Ethnic Protection Rackets: Turkish Cypriot Statebuilding before 1974 by Jackson, Christopher M.. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p520-544, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTFor the ten years prior to the Turkish partition of Cyprus into Greek and Turkish Cypriot zones, the Turkish Cypriot community lived in distinct ethnic enclaves governed by a parallel Turkish Cypriot administration. I argue that Turkish Cypriot elites formed a system of reciprocal relations with their community by acting as ethnic protection racketeers. With few material resources, but a demand for protection during intercommunal fighting, Turkish Cypriot leaders monopolised protection over and within enclaves, while also deterring co-ethnics from leaving their protection despite poor conditions. Ultimately, this influenced Turkish Cypriot preferences in UN-led talks, demanding to retain autonomy over specific territories they controlled, especially in providing security.; (AN 58820238) |
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Sowing the Seeds: Why do some armed groups socialise civilians more than others during civil war? by Hirschel-Burns, Danny. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p545-569, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhat explains variation in the intensity with which armed groups seek to socialise civilians into their ideology? This paper seeks to expand the literature on rebel governance and ideology in war to consider the ideational interaction between armed groups and civilians. A paired comparison examines the Naxalite Rebellion in India (1967-72) and the Shining Path Insurgency in Peru (1980-1992), which exhibited puzzling variation in socialisation intensity despite holding similar ideologies. I argue this variation can be explained by differences in combatant socialisation, how groups value reading- and writing-based education, and whether groups understand civilian participation as crucial for achieving victory.; (AN 58820241) |
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Mammy Water and Her Women’s Cult during the Nigeria-Biafra War in Oguta by Okwuosa, Lawrence; Iheanacho, Ambrose; Ekwueme, Stella Chinweudo; Uroko, Favour C.. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p570-587, 18p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe Nigeria-Biafra war, which lasted from 1967 to 1970, was fought on various fronts and in various tactics. Although the war was about the independence of the Republic of Biafra from Nigeria, for Oguta people of Southeastern Nigeria, it was a challenge to their goddess, Mammy Water and the people’s faith in her to protect their lives and properties. This paper, thus, studies the involvement of Mammy Water and her women cult during the Nigeria-Biafra war in Oguta. The findings indicated that the intervention of the goddess and her cult members in the war is a well-known event in Oguta.; (AN 58820242) |
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The Power of Narratives in Conflict and Peace: The Case of Contemporary Iraq by Ehrmann, Moritz; Millar, Gearoid. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p588-611, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTPresenting original data from interviews conducted in Iraq between 2013 and 2019, this paper charts the evolution of conflict related narratives of the ‘other’ among members of the Sunni confession immediately prior to, during, and after the rise and fall of the Islamic State (IS). It charts the evolution of these narratives through three escalatory phases (victimhoodnarratives, divisivenarratives, and violentnarratives) and three de-escalatory phases (nuancednarratives, reconciliatorynarratives, and unifyingnarratives). It concludes with reflections on the lessons this case can provide for identifying the best moments for Conflict Resolution actors to intervene in such violent conflicts.; (AN 58820235) |
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Preventing Civil War Recurrence: Do Military Victories Really Perform Better than Peace Agreements? Causal Claim and Underpinning Assumptions Revisited by Gromes, Thorsten; Ranft, Florian. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p612-636, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTExisting research suggests that peace is more stable after military victories than it is after peace agreements. This article challenges this conventional wisdom. By applying survival analysis, we demonstrate that peace agreements exhibit just as strong of a relationship to enduring peace as military victories do. Moreover, we investigate the assumptions that underpin the aforementioned claim. These assumptions link peace survival to the type of civil war termination and refer to intervening variables. Using time-series data for 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009, the empirical analysis finds support for only two underpinning assumptions in favour of victories.; (AN 58820244) |
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The Army and Politics in Zimbabwe: Mujuru, the Liberation Fighter and Kingmaker by Lord, Matthew J.. Civil Wars, October 2021, Vol. 23 Issue: Number 4 p637-640, 4p; (AN 58820237) |
Cold War History
Volume 22, no. 2, April 2022
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Operation Refugee: the Congo Crisis and the end of humanitarian imperialism in Southern Rhodesia, 1960 by Marmon, Brooks. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p131-152, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThousands of whites fled the former Belgian Congo in the weeks after independence. This movement had a significant impact on the politics of Southern Rhodesia. Disquieted whites in Rhodesia feared they might face a similar fate. They apprehensively mobilised in an effort known as Operation Refugee to support the displaced. Conversely, black nationalists were energised by the disruption. Their ranks increased and their rhetoric became more confrontational. While the transnational Congo Crisis is routinely evaluated through the framework of the Cold War, in the region’s white settler territories, the decolonisation imperative was another critical perspective through which the events in the Congo were perceived.; (AN 59130966) |
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In the eyes of the beholder: American and Thai perceptions of the highland minority during the Cold War by Hyun, Sinae. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p153-171, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe highland minority in the northern border areas of Thailand received special attention from the United States and Thai governments from the early 1950s, as its members were suspected of being supporters or sympathisers of the Chinese communists. After a brief review of the ethnographic research in Thailand before the 1950s, this article examines the ways the Thai and US military researchers promoted racially and culturally hierarchical concepts of national security during the Cold War. Their views directly affected policymaking processes in Thailand, widening further the extant gap between the Thai government and the ethnic minority.; (AN 59130971) |
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Comrades at enmity: Pyongyang-Hanoi split after the fall of Saigon by Do, Khue Dieu. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p173-194, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper unveils the accumulated tensions and conflicts in North Korean-Vietnamese relations in the late 1970s. From diplomatic competition to ideological gap, the once comrades-in-arms found themselves gradually drifting apart. But it was not until Vietnamese troops entered Cambodia that the traditional friendship was severely damaged. Economic cooperation deteriorated due to the North’s criticism of Vietnam and Kim Il Sung’s support for Democratic Kampuchea. Still, this paper emphasizes that a key source of the Pyongyang-Hanoi discord lay in their mutual perceptions and evaluations of each other’s accomplishments in nation-building and achieving reunification.; (AN 59130977) |
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The Chinese advisory groups in the first Indochina War: their formation, evolution, and disbandment by Cheng, Xiaohe. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p195-213, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe Communist Party of China swiftly embarked on its first overseas mission by sending military advisors to Vietnam right after founding the People’s Republic of China in 1949. By relying on first-hand archival materials and interviews with former advisors, this study reveals the formation, evolution, and disbandment of the Chinese advisory groups in Vietnam, the details of which remain generally vague, if not unknown, to the academic community. Thus, the study works to uncover the historical facts that can explain the rise and fall of these groups that operated in Vietnam from 1950–56.; (AN 59130970) |
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Retconning the history of covert operations: spy comics at the end of the Cold War by Lopes, Rui. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p215-236, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article analyses the revisionist engagement with the history of US covert operations in three spy series published by DC Comics in 1988–90: Blackhawk, The Unknown Soldierand Justice, Inc. It discusses four levels of revisionism: pre-textual (in the editorial/creative process), textual (in the ensuing narratives), intertextual (in the interplay with other media and earlier versions of same franchises) and extratextual (advertisements, reviews, editorials, readers’ letters). The article argues that these comics recoded the Cold War in a critical light and recreated the process of disenchantment with orthodox narratives, destabilising the era’s dominant historical imaginary of nostalgia and triumphalism.; (AN 59130979) |
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Poland 1945: war and peace by Kulczycki, John J.. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p237-239, 3p; (AN 59130984) |
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The gathering storm: Eduardo Frei’s Revolution in Liberty and Chile’s Cold War by Puma, Jorge. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p239-241, 3p; (AN 59130974) |
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Helmut Schmidt and British–German relations: a European misunderstanding by Day, Christopher. Cold War History, April 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 2 p242-244, 3p; (AN 59130983) |
Communist and Post-Communist Studies
Volume 55, no. 1, March 2022
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The East Is Red…Again! How the Specters of Communism and Russia Shape Central and Eastern European Views of China by Gries, Peter; Turcsányi, Richard. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p1-23, 23p; Abstract: During the past decade, China has rapidly emerged as a major player in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Will it divide Europe? Might these formerly communist countries align themselves again with a communist superpower to their east? Or does their past experience of Russia and communism generate suspicions of China? This article explores what public opinion data from a fall 2020 survey of six CEE countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Serbia, and Slovakia) can teach us about the drivers of CEE attitudes toward China. It suggests that China has become a “second Eastern power” beyond Russia against which many people in the CEE have come to define themselves. Although there are large differences between CEE publics in their views of China, individual-level self-identifications with the East or West, and attitudes toward the communist past and communism today consistently shape views of both Russia and China. Russia looms large for all in the CEE, but especially for Latvia and Poland, whose views of China appear to be almost completely mediated through attitudes toward their giant Russian neighbor. We conclude with thoughts on the implications of these findings about the structure of CEE public opinion toward China for the future of the “16+1” mechanism and CEE-China relations more broadly.; (AN 59300614) |
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How to Train Your Dragon by Ohanyan, Anna; Kopalyan, Nerses. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p24-51, 28p; Abstract: This article examines the issue of democratic breakthroughs in highly geopoliticized, fractured regions in the post-Soviet space. While recognizing the political challenges of democratic transitions in such regions, it investigates specific conditions conducive to effective democratic openings in such regions. Using a case study method, it focuses on Armenia’s Velvet Revolution in 2018, which successfully challenged the previously-entrenched authoritarian regime in the country. This was particularly significant as it occurred in Russia’s security orbit. Armenia has been firmly wedged in Russia-centric regional organizations, in parallel to the deep bilateral ties between the two countries developed since the Soviet collapse. This article argues, first, that the efficacy of nonviolent civil disobedience campaign played a key role in ushering a peaceful democratic breakthrough. This strategy is also credited for explaining Russian restraint as the events unfolded throughout the year. Second, it also highlights the specific form of Armenia’s authoritarianism and the institutionalization of the state that it had produced. It posits an autocrat’s dilemma: greater state institutionalization to defend the “soft” authoritarian system at some point becomes a liability. This dual-track approach to the study of Armenia’s Velvet Revolution, the civil society and the state, is also used to explain Russian restraint as a factor in this case. The article concludes with a brief application of this dual-track transition model to the unyielding mass protests in Belarus, also occurring in Russia’s security orbit.; (AN 59300613) |
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Legitimizing Putin’s Regime by Malinova, Olga. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p52-75, 24p; Abstract: This article follows the transformations of the official narrative about Russia’s post-Soviet transition over 20 years of Putin’s stay in power. To detect how the gradual evolution of political regime toward authoritarianism was legitimized, it focuses on comparison of concise narratives articulated in the Presidential Addresses to the Federal Assembly between 2000 and 2020. The method of research is computer-assisted qualitative content analysis. The article reveals how the declared stages of modern Russia’s development correlated with the evolving representations of the West. The initial goals of establishing democracy, the market economy, and the rule of law over time were either reinterpreted or dissolved into minor practical tasks. The most often articulated policy goal was raising the people’s living standards, which was narrated as overcoming the trauma of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the hard 1990s. In the Addresses, Russia became represented as a country that completed its transition between 2012 and 2018, with restoring its international positions and military strength, as well as resources for better social welfare. The “democratic society” was declared to be instituted; however, this term was associated with formal elections and facilitating civic participation, not with the alternation and accountability of power.; (AN 59300615) |
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Compliant Subjects? by Shynkarenko, Mariia. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p76-98, 23p; Abstract: The Crimean Tatars, a Muslim Turkic ethnic group, remain the most oppressed group in Crimea after the 2014 Russian annexation. The Ukrainian public tends to view them as obedient victims forced to accommodate Russian demands, while scholars mainly avoid the issue. My ethnographic fieldwork in Crimea, however, demonstrates that what might seem like obedient behavior from the outside is, in fact, an expression of agency. This reading is based on close-range observations and conversations with people who speak and behave in ways that initially appear as compliant acts, but which do in fact challenge Russian authorities—arguably more so than other overt forms of resistance in this context. I argue that the ability to decipher many Crimean Tatars’ behavior as tactics of resistance, depends on our understanding of authorities’ contrary expectations. Portrayed as religious fanatics and a security threat, Crimean Tatars are stereotyped as terrorists, likely to engage in extremist activity. In light of this, Crimean Tatars’ compliant behavior, expressed through patience and etiquette, festivity and humor, proves that narrative wrong. Furthermore, other seemingly compliant behaviors—such as accepting Russian passports in order to remain in Crimea—should be interpreted as an act of resistance to the political aims of state actors. By undermining the state’s aim to push out Crimean Tatars and increase the Slavic population, the decision to remain in Crimea in fact challenges state power, rather than affirms it.; (AN 59300616) |
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Against Putin and Corruption, for Navalny and the “Revolution”? by Fomin, Ivan; Nadskakuła-Kaczmarczyk, Olga. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p99-130, 32p; Abstract: This article seeks to provide a better understanding of the dynamics of the nationwide protests that appeared in Russia as a result of the large-scale political campaigns of 2017–18. On the basis of an original database devoted to six protests, organized in this period by different anti-systemic opposition leaders and organizations, the study explores the turnout and geographic scope of these events and the repertoire of frames that were used to mobilize the protesters. The analysis contrasts three types of frames (an anti-corruption protest frame, election campaign event frame, and anti-systemic protest frame) and demonstrates that appropriate framing was a necessary condition of successful protest mobilization. In combination with other factors, such as the quality of protest organization and the impact of repressive actions of the authorities, the changes of protest frames contributed to the protests’ turnout dynamics. Alexei Navalny, the most popular anti-systemic leader, succeeded in organizing the initial mobilization by framing it as an anti-corruption protest, but then, under increasing repression, the opposition failed to convert this dissent into a longer-term campaign with broader electoral or anti-systemic frames.; (AN 59300612) |
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Transformation of Civil Society in Poland under the United Right Government by Ślarzyński, Marcin. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p131-154, 24p; Abstract: Recent scholarship points to a growing political prominence of various non-liberal civil society organizations in many countries around the world. In Poland, this phenomenon is simultaneous with the emergence of political division in civil society driven by the policies of the United Right government. I argue that a wider historical perspective emphasizing reciprocal connections between civil society organizations and political parties helps to understand this recent surge. In Poland, the growing division in civil society builds upon the relationship between right-wing political parties and civil society organizations bound together since the beginning of the 1990s by the common vision of social memory. After taking power in 2015, the right-wing coalition in Poland centralized the supervision over the distribution of funds to civil society, providing financial support to organizations closer to its conservative agenda. At the same time, organizations that have been in frequent conflict with the right-wing government due to their main area of focus (human rights, anti-discrimination, women’s rights, environmental protection, and immigration) had limited access to government funding and were presented in a negative light by the government as well as its allied organizations and the state-controlled media. The argument in this article is based on secondary data about the organizational sphere of civil society and a case study of a set of right-wing civil society organizations, Gazeta Polska clubs.; (AN 59300611) |
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The Effect of Election Observation by Regalia, Marta. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p155-182, 28p; Abstract: International election observation has become a standard practice in democratizing countries. Doubts have been cast on the ability of electoral observers to accurately judge the freedom and fairness of an electoral process, and the scholarly literature has still not reached a consensus on the unintended consequences of election observation. This article empirically tests the hypothesis that observers can deter election-day fraud through a natural experiment on polling-station-level election results. Using data from the Ukraine 2004 presidential election, it will show that OSCE/ODIHR observation has both immediate and lasting effect on domestic political actors’ behavior. Results do support the usefulness of election observation in reducing election-day fraud.; (AN 59300609) |
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Common-Pool Resource Depletion and Dictatorship by Ward, Peter; Lankov, Andrei; Kim, Jiyoung. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, March 2022, Vol. 55 Issue: Number 1 p183-204, 22p; Abstract: This article seeks to explain the dynamics of resource depletion in North Korea’s fishery. We utilize insights from the common-pool resource (CPR) literature and show how theories from comparative politics that explain why states sometimes do not formalize property rights but prefer their informal exercise can be fruitfully applied to North Korea’s fishery. Utilizing a process tracing methodology, we demonstrate that the North Korean state possesses the necessary capacity to limit resource depletion, but has largely failed to do so. We argue that broad access to the commons maintains relations of enmeshed dependence between the dictator and those utilizing the fishery, balancing regime social control concerns with the party-state’s need for revenue. Further, in recent times, foreign actors have been allowed into the sector, providing a lucrative source of revenue without creating issues for internal control. We consider the alternative explanation that the North Korean state lacks the capacity to prevent CPR depletion, but demonstrate its implausibility given the preponderance of available evidence, not least the response of the regime in Pyongyang to the COVID-19 pandemic, where it has demonstrated considerable capacity to control the country’s fishing fleet.; (AN 59300610) |
Comparative Strategy
Volume 41, no. 2, March 2022
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Does punishment work? Selection effects in air power theory by Gurantz, Ron. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p123-134, 12p; Abstract: AbstractAir power theory initially proposed that punitive attacks against civilian targets could force enemies to surrender. The current literature, however, has largely concluded that conventional bombing is ineffective as punishment. I argue that this is the result of a selection effect. By focusing only on high-profile bombing campaigns, the theory has drawn its conclusions from cases where punishment is likely to fail. This contrasts with deterrence theory, which has analyzed diplomacy in the shadow of nuclear punishment. Air power theory should follow this model by examining how the threat of bombing has influenced diplomacy and broader patterns of international politics.; (AN 59209284) |
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The fragility of general deterrence: The United States and China in maritime East Asia by Lim, Yves-Heng. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p135-154, 20p; Abstract: AbstractThe last decade has witnessed the gradual erosion of the maritime status quo in East Asia, as the United States proved unable to curb Chinese challenges in the East and South China seas. This article argues that this phenomenon is linked to the erosion of US general deterrence posture in the region. It examines the three main factors that have contributed to this erosion: an enduring imbalance of interests between Beijing and Washington, a rapidly evolving local balance of power, and the employment by China of strategies that have allowed it to efficiently circumvent US weak red lines.; (AN 59209287) |
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Military exercises as a part of NATO deterrence strategy by Kubai, Danylo. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p155-161, 7p; Abstract: AbstractThe main aim of the article is to contribute to the better understanding of the role of military exercises for the deterrence strategy of NATO, in particular by proving the premise that military exercise is one of the most effective instrument of the military capabilities demonstration and political persuasion. Against the backdrop of the Russian revisionism and its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, NATO and its member states have substantially reinforced their deterrence capabilities. An increased number of military exercises, their geography and scale are intended to demonstrate the Alliance’s capacity and commitment to respond to potential aggression.; (AN 59209279) |
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The benefits of defense industry privatization: Markets, technology and U.S. military supremacy since World War II by Lara, Valentin. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p162-188, 27p; Abstract: AbstractRecently, China and Russia have taken unnoticed steps to partially privatize their defense industries to make them more innovative. If successful, these reforms could seriously alter the international balance of power at the expense of the United States. However, previous academic writings have usually been skeptical of the benefits of privatization in the defense industry. I argue that private markets constitute the best way to instill innovativeness in the defense industry. To demonstrate it, I compare the technological performance of the defense industry of two extreme and opposite cases, namely the United States and the USSR during the Cold War.; (AN 59209280) |
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A geopolitical and geostrategic blueprint for NATO’s China challenge by Schreer, Benjamin. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p189-202, 14p; Abstract: AbstractHow will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) respond to China’s rise? At the heart of NATO’s China challenge is the need for allies to grasp the magnitude of Beijing’s emerging geopolitical challenge to the Euro-Atlantic area. Utilizing geopolitical theories developed by Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman, the article argues that China is evolving into a transatlantic challenge on the Eurasian “maritime periphery.” Consequently, NATO can play a significant role in putting pressure on China’s continental direction and its efforts to extend its strategic reach into the “far seas.”; (AN 59209283) |
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A “Mah-Kinder” geopolitical explanation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by Wey, Adam Leong Kok. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p203-211, 9p; Abstract: AbstractChina’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has garnered a lot of attention, and worries about its impact and influence over Eurasia and Indo-Pacific. Two classical geopoliticians – Halford J. Mackinder and Alfred Thayer Mahan – had provided useful frameworks to explain China’s BRI geopolitical implications, and geostrategies to dominate the Eurasian continent and Indo-Pacific waterways with economic tools and infrastructure projects. This article claims that China’s BRI is a testament of the exceptional explanatory power of classical geopolitical theories in the practice of grand strategy in international politics.; (AN 59209281) |
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Techno-nationalism vs. techno globalization: India’s military acquisitions and arms production dilemma by Gupta, Amit. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p212-228, 17p; Abstract: AbstractSince independence the Indian government has pursued a state-driven approach to arms production that has led to lengthy delays, cost overruns, and not fulfilled the desired goal of autonomy in weapons production. At the same time, a weapons acquisition policy that is marked by lengthy negotiations and an emphasis on unrealistic technology transfers has led the Indian armed forces to be shortchanged in their attempts to build up a modern force structure. The pathologies of arms production and weapons acquisition have left the Indian armed forces less effective than they would like to be in combatting a two-front challenge to the country’s security. The article suggests that moving from a techno nationalistic arms production policy to one of techno globalization (with realistic outcomes) is the best step forward for India.; (AN 59209286) |
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China's foreign relations and security dimensions by Cecil, Malachi. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p229-230, 2p; (AN 59209282) |
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The light that failed: Why the West is losing the fight for democracy by Dale Walton, C.. Comparative Strategy, March 2022, Vol. 41 Issue: Number 2 p230-232, 3p; (AN 59209285) |
Conflict, Security & Development
Volume 22, no. 1, January 2022
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1. |
The power of non-violence: Silmiya& the Sudanese Revolution by Awad, Reem. Conflict, Security and Development, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p1-21, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis research explores the 2018 revolution in Sudan to assess the extent to which the adoption of non-violence led to a more successful revolution and set Sudan on a path of democratic governance. It investigates the revolution’s main slogan, Silmiya, coming from the Arabic word Salammeaning ‘peace’. Thus, the nature and function of non-violence as well as what motivates people to resort to non-violence will be considered. The research acts as a point of departure from Fanon’s theory of violence arguing that violence is revolutionary and liberating. Ultimately, the research challenges normative frameworks on the necessity of violence for social movements to succeed as Fanon theorises, sheds light on the power of non-violence, and highlights the importance of re-examining characteristics historically associated with non-violence, such as passivity or weakness.; (AN 59113366) |
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Marketisation of Islam and politics of development in Bangladesh by Husain, Matt M. Conflict, Security and Development, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p23-45, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article problematises the marketisation of Islam in Bangladesh and the relationship between neo-liberal economic policies and the resurgence of a certain kind of Islamic religiosity in the country. Based on the findings of three field studies that employed a multi-method approach, the article analyses the macro-cultural impacts of development as well as highlights the embedded, nuanced, and complex set of economic and political relationships that appear to fuel social inequality and engender inequitable distribution and growth. Empirical findings identify the implementation of development policies based on client-patron relations as the main problematic precursor. The findings suggest such relations facilitate an ongoing marginalisation of minority groups, in which ‘othering’ among the equals emerge as a cemented outcome. The findings further suggest the outcomes move across social groups and are in transit and under negotiation, becoming braided with adverse impact on Bangla language, Bengali cultures, the country’s advanced education sector, and the overall ability for Bangladeshis to think critically and produce and sustain social relations. Evidence also indicates Bengali cultures appear to become increasingly embedded in a number of rituals in the name of Islamic principles and philosophy. The article refers to this phenomenon as the ‘great’ transformation of contemporary Bangladesh.; (AN 59113348) |
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Moral hazard in Sudan’s ‘Two Areas’ – humanitarianism that perpetuates civil war by Kuperman, Alan J.. Conflict, Security and Development, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p47-77, 31p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article examines how the conflict since 2011 in Sudan’s ‘Two Areas’, the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, has been prolonged by a well-intentioned but counter-productive international response. The United States and other western countries, motivated by humanitarianism, imposed sanctions against Sudan’s regime and provided aid to rebel regions. This western response was fostered partially by disinformation – about the genesis of the conflict, the regime’s use of force, and the causes and extent of the humanitarian crisis. Western support incentivized the rebels to perpetuate their hopeless military campaign, which prolonged the displacement of an estimated one-third of civilians in the Two Areas. Only after the United States lifted some sanctions in 2017, and a popular revolution overthrew the regime in 2019, did U.S. officials belatedly identify rebel leader Abdelaziz al-Hilu as an obstacle to peace. The article concludes with lessons for ending the conflict in Sudan’s Two Areas and mitigating such civil wars elsewhere.; (AN 59113359) |
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Sex trafficking and sex-for-food/money: terrorism and conflict-related sexual violence against men in the Lake Chad region by Njoku, Emeka Thaddues; Akintayo, Joshua; Mohammed, Idris. Conflict, Security and Development, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p79-95, 17p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIn understanding conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), the notion of how sexuality and sex are naturally linked to power is gaining traction in IR discourses. There is, however, little contextual or empirical evidence that accounts for the various forms of CRSV against men, or how offenders exploit power dynamics in conflict and post-conflict settings to achieve their sexual desires. As a result, we rely on ethnographic accounts from survivors/victims, NGO workers, and security personnel on the front lines of the counter-terrorism campaign in the Lake Chad basin, particularly in North-eastern Nigeria. Long-term terrorist violence, we argue, creates material imbalances in men and boys and increases their vulnerabilities, providing platforms for individual perpetrators to exploit their vulnerable status or engage in sex-trafficking rings to satisfy their sexual urges. Therefore, this article adds conceptually and empirically to the nature and motivations of wartime sexual violence, as well as the gendered dynamics of armed conflict. It challenges the popular masculinist notion that men are immune to sex trafficking and sexual violence. The study emphasises the importance of effective IDP camp management and prosecution in preventing would-be offenders.; (AN 59113354) |
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UAE-Pakistan Development Cooperation: A Model for South–South Cooperation in a Multipolar World by Snider, Joshua; Jan, Mohammad Waqas. Conflict, Security and Development, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p97-118, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article examines the UAE-Pakistan relationship in areas related to the UAE’s role as one of Pakistan’s emerging development partners. We examine the ways in which this relationship has evolved and rather than repeating the frequently made argument that the relationship is coloured by a mix of resource imbalances and differences in perception, we argue that both states are poised to play a key role in leveraging each other’s national priorities as part of changing regional dynamics. Looking at this issue via the aid/development sphere offers a unique lens through which to view the changing national interests of both states as served by an alternate and unique model for South–South cooperation. The UAE can engage in low-cost, low-risk, high-impact development assistance as it builds towards a more resource-conscious, region-focused aid policy. And for Pakistan, despite recent differences with the GCC states (including the UAE), a bolstered development relationship with the UAE would contribute to overcoming one of the main critiques highlighted by various post-development theorists – that aid flows into South Asia, and Pakistan in particular, reinforces socio-cultural hegemony of great powers and their dominance of the development space as part of wider securitisation agendas.; (AN 59113347) |
Contemporary Security Policy
Volume 43, no. 1-2, January 2022
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Results |
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1. |
Changes to the editorial team and board by Dijkstra, Hylke. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p1-2, 2p; (AN 59013766) |
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2. |
The 2022 Bernard Brodie prize by Dijkstra, Hylke. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p3-4, 2p; (AN 59013770) |
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The vitality of the NPT after 50 by Rublee, Maria Rost; Wunderlich, Carmen. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p5-23, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe most inclusive security treaty in the world, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) turned 50 in 2020. Our special issue takes stock of the NPT’s vitality after these five decades. In this introduction, we emphasize the need to distinguish between the treaty instrument and the larger nuclear nonproliferation regime. Next, we consider a recent development that may represent a serious impending shock which could weaken the NPT: dramatic changes in the treaty’s legal and normative landscape. Then, we assess vitality of the NPT in light of current concerns, arguing that norm contestation can be healthy for international regimes and calls for the death of the NPT are premature. Finally, we review the contributions of our special issue authors, highlighting the significant differences among them, and embedding them in ongoing research on the NPT.; (AN 59013769) |
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NPT as an antifragile system: How contestation improves the nonproliferation regime by Smetana, Michal; O'Mahoney, Joseph. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p24-49, 26p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWe introduce “antifragility” as a conceptual framework to understand the impact of occasional violations of regime norms on the health of respective regimes. Contrary to the prevailing understanding of norm violation as a strictly negative phenomenon that leaves regimes damaged, we show that normative deviance is, under certain conditions, a stressor that helps predominantly antifragile systems learn, improve, and adapt to changes in both internal and external environments. We apply this conceptual framework to the case of the NPT regime and the prominent violations of its nonproliferation norms by India in the 1970s (as a “contestation from outside”) and Iraq in the 1990s (as a “contestation from within”). Our findings question the prevailing catastrophizing narrative about the strictly negative impact of norm violations on regime stability and contribute to contemporary scholarly debates about norm dynamics within the NPT.; (AN 59013763) |
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Durable institution under fire? The NPT confronts emerging multipolarity by Gibbons, Rebecca Davis; Herzog, Stephen. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p50-79, 30p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe regime built around the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has helped curtail the spread of nuclear arms for fifty years. In hindsight, it is remarkable only nine states possess the world’s most powerful weapon. The NPT achieved much success during Cold War bipolarity and U.S. unipolarity in its aftermath. But today, China’s rise and Russia’s resurgence have ushered in a new era of emerging multipolarity. Can the treaty withstand the potential challenges of this dynamic environment? There is a real risk that multipolarity may shake the scaffolding of the nonproliferation regime, presenting a significant test to the NPT’s durability. This article identifies four essential elements of the nonproliferation regime: widespread membership, adaptability, enforcement, and fairness. History suggests bipolarity and unipolarity in the international system largely sustained and promoted these NPT features. When international regimes lack such elements, it sharply curtails their long-term efficacy.; (AN 59013762) |
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Power to the have-nots? The NPT and the limits of a treaty hijacked by a “power-over” model by Hanson, Marianne. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p80-105, 26p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), its evolution over the past five decades, and the dissatisfaction of the non-nuclear states within it, can be analyzed by focusing on different understandings of power. Within the various concepts of power are claims which distinguish between what is known broadly as “power-over” and a more subtle form of influence, “power-to.” This article explores the history of the NPT, showing how the nuclear weapon states have shaped and limited this institution by practices which fall within the relational emphasis of “power-over.” Recently, however, non-nuclear states have adopted a “power-to” approach. Frustrated by their inability to bring about substantive change within the limits of the NPT, these states have realized and applied their agency and collective “power-to” in order to create an alternative approach to the problem of nuclear weapons in the context of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).; (AN 59013771) |
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A theory of nuclear disarmament: Cases, analogies, and the role of the non-proliferation regime by Egeland, Kjølv. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p106-133, 28p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhat might prompt a nuclear-armed state to give up its arsenal? Nuclear disarmament has provided a nominally shared goal for virtually all the world’s states for decades, yet surprisingly little effort has been devoted to systematically theorizing its drivers. This article aims to begin filling this void. I proceed in three steps. First, I discuss the conceptual, material, and ideational features of renunciation to arrive at a rudimentary understanding of what, fundamentally, nuclear disarmament as a political process involves. Second, I scope out the empirical evidence on which a general theory of nuclear renunciation might be based. Third, synthesizing the dominant explanations for the cases discussed in the second part, I outline a basic account of nuclear relinquishment and discuss the compatibility of this account with common assumptions about disarmament practice. I conclude that the best evidence available suggests that adversarial politics and stigmatization are necessary conditions for renunciation.; (AN 59013765) |
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A wolf in sheep’s clothing? The NPT and symbolic proliferation by Noda, Orion. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p134-160, 27p; Abstract: ABSTRACTI argue that the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) not only fails to address non-quantitative forms of nuclear proliferation, but also acts as a proliferator of the symbolic values of nuclear weapons. Drawing from Semiotics scholarship, I identify two symbolic roles played by the NPT: as a symbol in itself and as a symbolic proliferator. To support my argument, I employ document and critical discourse analyses, examining the text of the treaty as well as statements from selected nuclear weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) at the 2015 NPT Review Conference (RevCon). This article is structured in two sections: Firstly, I put forward an analytical framework focused on symbolism, exploring the symbolic role of nuclear weapons. Secondly, I turn my attention to the NPT, examining its role and success in the past 50 years employing the symbolic analytical framework.; (AN 59013764) |
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When is it legitimate to abandon the NPT? Withdrawal as a political tool to move nuclear disarmament forward by Pretorius, Joelien; Sauer, Tom. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p161-185, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTTreaties can be denounced and withdrawn from unilaterally and collectively. We ask when it would be legitimate to abandon the NPT, a treaty that 50 years ago committed states to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, but still has not delivered on the latter. The end of the NPT is a taboo subject in the arms control community that sees it as the cornerstone of the nuclear order. We draw on literature on the legitimacy of and exit from international institutions. We especially explore the political substance of the discontent that the non-nuclear weapons states have expressed in and outside the NPT forum. Exiting the NPT can legitimately be used as a political tool to challenge the current status quo where five states claim a right to possess nuclear weapons based on the NPT, and to achieve a nuclear order where nuclear weapons are illegal for all.; (AN 59013768) |
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Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order by Knopf, Jeffrey W.. Contemporary Security Policy, January 2022, Vol. 43 Issue: Number 1 p186-212, 27p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) constitutes just one component of broader arrangements that provide global nuclear governance. In recent decades, the other props in the global nuclear order beyond its nonproliferation elements have been eroding, thereby putting more weight on the contributions of the NPT and other aspects of the nonproliferation regime. Unfortunately, recent progress in building up the NPT-based nonproliferation regime seems also to have halted. This article outlines the elements of the global nuclear order and identifies signs of erosion in that order. It discusses whether a greater commitment to nuclear disarmament might help counter that erosion and highlights the underlying cognitive dimension of efforts to avoid nuclear war.; (AN 59013767) |
Cooperation and Conflict
Volume 56, no. 1, January 2022
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1. |
Trembling city: Policing Freetown’s war-peace transition by Albrecht, Peter; Christensen, Maya Mynster. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: While divided cities are characterized by spatially cemented segregation and polarized divisions, the trembling city is organized around transient and transformative borders. We conceptualize this notion of urban space to capture Freetown’s war-peace transition in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Ex-combatants settled on the city margins, bringing with them spatial strategies from war-fighting into the city by recreating a system of bases. The Sierra Leone Police (SLP) re-emerged with external support, seeking to compartmentalize and fixate Freetown through a combination of force and negotiation. We use borders and bordering to understand policing as attempts by both ex-combatants and the SLP to border in as well as out; defensively against external interference and offensively to make territorial claims. By extension, it is tensions in these practices between attempts to defend and harden borders, and at the same time, expand and soften them that trigger a tremble. The city tremble was a reminder of the possibility of war that Freetown very easily could return to. It also became a more general and inconspicuous condition of the city as an inhabited space, where multiple and often incompatible and conflictual spatial logics, strategies, and practices of policing clashed, overlapped and co-existed uneasily.; (AN 58789876) |
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Disinformation and gendered boundarymaking: Nordic media audiences making sense of “Swedish decline” by Edenborg, Emil. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: This article examines how Russian geostrategic communication is entangled in global gender politics. The aim is to understand the resonance of disinformation in relation to culturalized, ethnicized and racialized narratives of gender, or “gendered boundarymaking.” The analysis is based on focus group discussions with Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian individuals, asked to share their impressions of news articles from the Russian media agency Sputnik, which all depicted Sweden as a warning example of multiculturalism and feminism gone “too far.” In the discussions, participants opposed a gender equal “self” to a patriarchal immigrant “other,” narrated Sweden as a country exceptionally concerned with gender, and tapped into competing temporalities of progress and decline. The article contributes to research on geostrategic communication by showing how disinformation efforts draw upon gendered national identities and debates about gender and immigration. More importantly, the article demonstrates that such gendered boundarymaking shapes audiences’ interpretations in crucial ways. Rather than viewing disinformation only from a state-centered lens of national security, in isolation from racism, Islamophobia, anti-feminism, and queerphobia within Western societies, research should acknowledge the interconnections between geostrategic communication and everyday boundarymaking. This will be pivotal to developing counterstrategies to disinformation, whether Russian or homegrown.; (AN 58449083) |
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A trans-scalar approach to peacebuilding and transitional justice: Insights from the Democratic Republic of Congo by Hellmüller, Sara. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Peace research has taken a local turn. Yet, conceptual ambiguities, risks of romanticization, and critiques of co-option of the “local” point to the need to look for novel ways to think about the interactions of actors ranging from the global to the local level. Gearoid Millar proposes a trans-scalar approach to peace based on a “consistency of purpose” and a “parity of esteem” for actors across scales. This article analyzes the concept of trans-scalarity in the peace process in Ituri, a province in the northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Drawing on qualitative data from more than a year of research in the DRC, I argue that while a trans-scalar approach was taken to end violence, it was not applied to transitional justice initiatives. The result was a negative, rather than a positive peace. By showing the high, but still untapped, potential of trans-scalarity, the article makes three contributions. First, it advances the debate on the local turn by adding empirical insights on trans-scalarity and further developing the concept’s theoretical foundations. Second, it provides novel empirical insights on the transitional justice process in the DRC. Third, it links scholarship on peacebuilding and transitional justice, which have often remained disconnected.; (AN 58592307) |
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A better foundation for national security? The ethics of national risk assessments in the Nordic region by Lidén, Kristoffer. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Aiming at analysing all major security risks to a country, comprehensive National Risk Assessments (NRAs) can be used as a foundation for national security policies. Doing so manifests a modernist dream of securing societies through the anticipatory governance of risks. Yet, this dream resembles a nightmare of undemocratic state control in the name of security. Based on a critique of the politics of NRAs, this article offers a theoretical framework for evaluating their scientific and political credentials. Drawing on political theory of technocratic expert rule, ethical criteria of epistemic reliability and political representation are introduced to the debate. These criteria are then applied to an analysis of the NRAs of Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland. I argue that although these NRAs are convincing correctives to the risk perceptions of politicians and civil society, they are insufficiently reliable and representative for defining the scope and priorities of national security policies at large.; (AN 58859901) |
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Female rebels and United Nations peacekeeping deployments by Mehrl, Marius; Dworschak, Christoph. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: How does the presence of female rebel combatants during conflict influence the likelihood of United Nations post-conflict peacekeeping deployment? While past literature on peacekeeping emphasizes the role of conflict attributes and security council interests, only few studies investigate the importance of belligerent characteristics. We argue that, because dominant gender stereotypes paint women as peaceful, female rebel combatants lead domestic and international audiences to perceive conflicts in which they fight as more severe. Given that recent UN resolutions and mission mandates align with these stereotypes, this in turn, causes the UN to intervene and deploy peacekeepers. Multivariate regression models drawing on a global sample of UN post-conflict missions provide empirical support for our hypothesis. Our findings add to the growing body of literature emphasizing the role of women in combat roles, and contribute to the discussion on the UN’s Women, Peace, and Security agenda.; (AN 58389663) |
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Who performs better? A comparative analysis of problem-solving effectiveness and legitimacy attributions to international organizations1 by Panke, Diana; Polat, Gurur; Hohlstein, Franziska. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: The performance of individual international organizations (IOs) has received considerable scholarly attention, not in the least because their importance for global governance. This paper adds to this body of work by adopting genuine comparative lenses. Based on a novel survey, it assesses the attributed performance of 49 IOs over two important dimensions: problem-solving effectiveness and legitimacy of outputs. This reveals variation between IOs with respect to both components. We derive hypotheses from international cooperation and IO design. The quantitative analysis reveals that except deliberative diplomatic practices many factors increasing attributed legitimacy differ from the ones increasing the attributed problem-solving effectiveness. Most notably, autonomous secretariats increase the problem-solving effectiveness attributed to IOs. Legitimacy attributions increase when IOs are regional instead of global in nature and when non-state actors have access to IO decision-making.; (AN 58724424) |
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In defence of common values: The Finnish EU Council Presidency 2019 by Tuominen, Hanna. Cooperation and Conflict, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Finland promoted a value-based agenda as the President of the European Union (EU) Council in 2019. The focus was especially on the defence of the rule of law principle. A role as a strong value promoter departs from the pragmatic and cautious tradition of Finnish EU policy. In this article, I will ask why Finland chose to promote values, and what kind of political debate preceded its Presidency term. Second, I will look at the actual promotion of the common values during the Presidency. Third, I will provide some evaluations of the success of Finland’s value-based approach. The analysis draws from comprehensive documentary sources related to Finnish EU policy and her Presidency term, and from 33 semi-structured research interviews among the key Finnish politicians, civil servants and civil society organization representatives in 2020. The article shows that values were thoroughly debated before the term and their relevance increased as the Presidency approached. Finland also succeeded in promoting several values, especially by linking them to practical questions. The article argues that evaluating the success of Finland’s approach is more contentious, which may be tackled several ways.; (AN 59044449) |
Current History
Volume 121, no. 834, April 2022
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1. |
Religious Spaces, Urban Poverty, and Interfaith Relations in India by Sen, Atreyee. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p123-128, 6p; Abstract: The phenomenal rise of Hindu nationalism, and the implementation of a series of anti-minority decrees, has raised national and international concerns about the nature and culture of interfaith relations in contemporary India. While Hindu religious identities become increasingly politicized and integrated into nationalist propaganda, some ordinary Indians continue to defy absolute separation between communities. This essay suggests that urban poverty often becomes a context for entangled humanity across lines of faith, as the poor informally use their sacred spaces as arenas for retaining and reviving old and new forms of interreligious coexistence, mutual assistance, and reverence.; (AN 59303495) |
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Slow Progress for Women with Disabilities in India by Addlakha, Renu. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p129-134, 6p; Abstract: This essay examines the engendering of disability in India over the past half a century through a reflexive lens; the author has been both an observer and participant in this process. The article looks at how women with disabilities have emerged as a distinct category in the different registers of state, civil society, and academia, in the face of overwhelming odds as individuals and invisibility as a group. It also discusses how notions of human rights and empowerment play out in the entangled web of state discourses, routine practices, and everyday lived experiences.; (AN 59303503) |
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Transformations in Afghan Media and Culture Through Cycles of Upheaval by Osman, Wazhmah. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p135-140, 6p; Abstract: This article traces how the Afghan cultural, media, and arts sectors have gone through cycles of boom and bust in tandem with the country’s tumultuous history in recent decades, starting with the prewar golden era in the 1960s and 1970s, then focusing on the post-9/11 internationally funded media expansion, and finally on the Taliban’s return to power. The current exodus of human talent, due to forced migration, dispossession, and displacement, amounts to a profound cultural loss. But the country has already been transformed by the influence of a period of media freedoms and an emergent public sphere that created space for democratic debate and cosmopolitan cultural expression.; (AN 59303501) |
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4. |
COVID-19, Poverty, and Inequality in Bangladesh by Lata, Lutfun Nahar. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p141-146, 6p; Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the global economy and the livelihoods of disadvantaged populations. Bangladesh, like other developing countries, has been hit hard, and marginalized groups have suffered the most. Before the pandemic, Bangladesh’s economy was growing rapidly, and the country was known for its steady improvement in health and education development indicators. Yet in its pandemic response, the government has been unable to provide adequate aid and health facilities for the large population living in poverty. The response has been hampered by lack of resources, corruption in the delivery of economic support, and existing health inequalities.; (AN 59303504) |
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The Quest for Sustainable Tourism in Nepal by Nepal, Sanjay K.. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p147-153, 7p; Abstract: Long a prime destination for mountaineers and trekkers, Nepal has struggled to develop a tourism industry that is economically and environmentally sustainable. After becoming a draw for hippies in the late 1960s, the country never managed to reorient itself away from budget travelers and toward higher-value services that would make the most of its natural and cultural attractions, as its neighbor Bhutan has done. The COVID-19 pandemic is the third major interruption to tourism in recent years, after a decade-long civil war and the 2015 earthquake. It could be a chance to finally put the industry on a more sustainable path.; (AN 59303498) |
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Bollywood’s Majoritarian Politics and the Independent Alternative by Devasundaram, Ashvin Immanuel. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p154-156, 3p; Abstract: India’s mainstream film industry has increasingly fallen under the influence of the Hindu nationalist ruling party and its agenda. But a thriving, multilingual independent sector is producing creative counternarratives.; (AN 59303496) |
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Pakistan’s Fragmented Megacity by Khan, Nichola. Current History, April 2022, Vol. 121 Issue: Number 834 p157-160, 4p; Abstract: A new book by a journalist follows five interlocutors through Karachi’s recent history of rapid expansion, corruption, violence, and civil society efforts.; (AN 59303502) |
Defence and Peace Economics
Volume 33, no. 2, February 2022
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1. |
The Economic Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence by Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p129-149, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis study estimates the joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq, on Iran’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP,’ constant 2010 US$) for the period 1978–1988, during the revolution/war. I use a synthetic control approach, whereby a synthetic Iran is constructed as a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’)/Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries to match the average level of some key per capita GDP correlates over the period 1970–1977 as well as the evolution of the actual Iranian per capita GDP during that period. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The average Iranian lost an accumulated sum of approximately US$ 34,660 during 1978–1988 (i.e. the average annual real per capita income loss of US$ 3,150). This loss equals 40% of the real income per capita, which an Iranian could earn in the absence of revolution and war. The confidence sets based on constant, linear, and uniform assumptions of treatment effect show that estimated income loss for Iran is sizeable and statistically significant. The results remain robust to a set of placebo tests.; (AN 59299853) |
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Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin by Bouri, Elie; Gupta, Rangan; Vo, Xuan Vinh. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p150-161, 12p; Abstract: ABSTRACTAre price discontinuities in cryptocurrencies jointly related to large swings in geopolitical risk? This is a relevant question to answer given recent news from the press that Bitcoin’s price jumps are driven by jumps in the level of geopolitical risk index. To answer this question, we examine first the jump incidence of daily returns for Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies and then study the co-jumps between cryptocurrencies and the geopolitical risk index using logistic regressions. Our dataset is at the daily frequency and covers the period 30 April 2013 to 31 October 2019. The results show that the price behaviour of all cryptocurrencies under study is jumpy but only Bitcoin jumps are dependent on jumps in the geopolitical risk index. This revealed evidence of significant co-jumps for the case of Bitcoin only nicely complements previous studies arguing that Bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitical risk.; (AN 59299851) |
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Odds for Arms? State Chance Game Participation in Turkey by Gunluk-Senesen, Gulay; Kahveci, Mustafa. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p162-176, 15p; Abstract: ABSTRACTNet profits of state-run chance games are either earmarked for non-defence ‘good causes’ or added to the public purse in international practice. The Turkish case is unique as 95% of profits were earmarked for the extrabudgetary Defence Industry Support Fund (DISF) by legislation during 1986–2007. The DISF administers security equipment procurement and domestic arms production in Turkey. The earmarking practice was dissolved in 2007 and chance game profits are transferred to the general budget. The incomings of the DISF are from the budget and from earmarked taxes from 2007 onwards. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of these practices on chance game sales for the period 1986–2017. Noting that a chance game is a joint public-private good, participation is motivated by expectations for private gain but at the same time loss is legitimised by expectations for provision of public services with the takeout part. In order to gain insight into the societal motives in chance game participation in Turkey our model is defined in the context of private (consumerism) cum public (security, warfare) interest. The VECM estimates support a long-run relationship between chance game sales and security variables.; (AN 59299854) |
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4. |
Taxing Butter while Buying Guns by Klomp, Jeroen. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p177-200, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis study examines whether governments use the revenues accruing from agricultural taxes to finance their arms imports. This policy issue is especially of importance for developing countries as the decision to finance the acquisition of arms using agricultural taxes will create a trade-off between two important policy objectives in these countries: on the one hand, ensuring food security for the population at large and, on the other hand, improving national security. Our empirical findings generally suggest that governments in developing countries partly finance their arms imports by increasing the agricultural tax rate. It turns out that the magnitude of this effect relies to a certain extent on country-specific factors such as whether a country has to deal with a security threat, strength of the democratic institutions in place, and the regular occurrence of major shocks to the domestic food provision. Also, taxes on cash crops intended for export are more likely to be used for financing the arms imports compared to taxes on import-competing or subsistence crops.; (AN 59299855) |
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Firm Performance in Regulated Markets: The Case of Spanish Defence Industry by Callado-Muñoz, Francisco J.; Hromcová, Jana; Sanso-Navarro, Marcos; Utrero-González, Natalia; Vera-Cabello, María. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p201-218, 18p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper studies the effects of legal reforms associated with defence and public procurement on firm performance. With this aim, a theoretical framework for the reaction of defence firms to regulatory changes is developed. Its predictions have been empirically assessed using the last reforms implemented in Spain. Our results suggest that these new regulations have allowed the main defence contractors to outperform the other defence contractors in terms of productivity, having no effect on profitability. These findings are in line with theoretical priors. Therefore, it can be claimed that governmental interventions have had an effect on firm performance. We also provide evidence that, while the procurement procedures and the contract law put into place in 2011 have principally affected the productivity of large firms, the centralization process established in 2014 has exerted a higher influence on SMEs.; (AN 59299856) |
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Characterisation of Technological Collaborations and Evolution in the Spanish Defence Industry by Callado-Muñoz, Francisco J.; Fernández-Olmos, Marta; Ramírez-Alesón, Marisa.; Utrero-González, Natalia.. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p219-238, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTCollaboration with technological partners as an innovation strategy has become widespread in recent years, and all sectors are immersed in this process. In particular, the defence industry is characterised by the technological complexity of the products and services offered, together with a constant innovation process. However, data that allow us to identify characteristics that are found in collaboration contracts are not usually available in this sector. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by studying the different characteristics of both the technological partners and the development agreements for the 1999-2017 period. This is possible thanks to a database of more than 300 collaboration technology agreements between public and private organisations and the Spanish Ministry of Defence. The results provide the Ministry of Defence with a clear picture of the type of collaborations in the Defence industry, their partners and their behaviour under different economic conditions, which will help it identify the type of collaborations that can contribute to improving the design of its innovation strategy.; (AN 59299850) |
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7. |
Rethinking Government Supplier Decisions: The Economic Evaluation of Alternatives (EEoA) by Melese, Francois; Fan, James. Defence and Peace Economics, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 2 p239-257, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper offers an economic model to assist public procurement officials to rank competing vendors when benefits cannot be monetized. An important defense application is ‘source selection’ – choosing the most cost-effective vendor to supply military equipment, facilities, services or supplies. The problem of ranking public investment alternatives when benefits cannot be monetized has spawned an extensive literature that underpins widely applied decision tools. The bulk of the literature, and most government-mandated decision tools, focus on the demand side of a public procurement. The ‘Economic Evaluation of Alternatives’ (EEoA) extends the analysis to the supply side. A unique feature of EEoA is to model vendor decisions in response to government funding projections. Given a parsimonious set of continuously differentiable evaluation criteria, EEoA provides a new tool to rank vendors. In other cases, it offers a valuable consistency check to guide government supplier decisions.; (AN 59299852) |
Defence Studies
Volume 22, no. 1, January 2022
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What is the value of naval forces?–ideas as a strategic and tactical restriction by Björnehed, Emma. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p1-15, 15p; (AN 58916283) |
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2. |
Countering hybrid threats: does strategic culture matter? by Wijnja, Kim. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p16-34, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates once again that hybrid threats are increasingly challenging European countries. Although there is international cooperation on the conceptual level, individual countries are responsible for the actual implementation of counter hybrid measures. This article compares the approaches of Finland, Germany and the Netherlands to counter hybrid threats, while taking into consideration their strategic culture. It shows that the countries differ in their approach to counter hybrid threats in terms of their organisation of security and the scope of measures taken to deter adversaries. These differences are mainly rooted in historical, institutional and political processes. The countries are rather similar in detecting hybrid threats and responding to hybrid attacks, which can be explained by the nature of hybrid threats. Consequently, strategic culture is a context that shapes but not ultimately determines how Finland, Germany and the Netherlands counter hybrid threats. The results of this article suggest that our current understanding of strategic culture is insufficient to describe and explain an actor’s security policy in the contemporary security environment. It is recommended that the concept of strategic culture should be revised and has to be examined more broadly by including national security issues and a broad spectrum of instruments of power.; (AN 58916286) |
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3. |
“The Hultqvist doctrine” – Swedish security and defence policy after the Russian annexation of Crimea by Wieslander, Anna. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p35-59, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article analyses how Sweden has adapted to the worsened security situation in its vicinity following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and war in Eastern Ukraine. The paper builds on security policy research focused on neoclassic realism and small state strategies in order to explore how the, broadly unknown, security policy from 2009 has been implemented in practice since 2014, through what observers call the “Hultqvist doctrine.” The aim is to bring clarity to how the Hultqvist doctrine best can be understood – as a non-aligned or an integration policy? – and how the strategy relates to both systemic forces and domestic circumstances. The paper addresses the puzzle posed by structural realism, that the systemic forces would work to encourage Sweden to align in face of the threat that emerged in 2014. Still, Sweden has resisted NATO membership. To this end, I construct and apply an analytical framework that not only reveals the degree of novelty in the doctrine, but also allows for an evaluation of integration in three dimensions – openness, inclusiveness and comprehensiveness – in combination with a screening dimension. Following neoclassical realism, the study furthermore identifies domestic conditions that hinder policy flexibility.; (AN 58916273) |
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4. |
An A2/AD in the Western Mediterranean? Is Algeria developing anti-access/area-denial capabilities? by Colom-Piella, Guillem. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p60-78, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe operational and strategic effects associated with the creation of defensive bastions in the seas off China, in Eastern Europe, or the Persian Gulf have prompted extensive military debate. The article aims to contribute to this debate by speculating on the potential creation of an Algerian A2/AD bubble in the Western Mediterranean. Such a zone does not appear to exist, but Algerian military developments allow it to monitor air and naval movements in an area comprising the Straits of Gibraltar, the Balearic Islands and Sardinia and to increase its capability to deny access to these parts, thus consolidating an AD zone with potential strategic effects.; (AN 58916282) |
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5. |
Venezuelan military: a political and ideological model in Chavista governments by Duarte Villa, Rafael. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p79-98, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe arrival of Hugo Chavez (1999–2013) to the government profoundly altered the role of the armed forces in the Venezuela political system. In this article we argue that Hugo Chávez’s government took the military to the field of politics by turning them into important political actors and Maduro’s governments (2013 -present) grants them a high degree of autonomy in politics and economics according to a model of political and ideological behavior. We advance our argument by proposing and testing the political and ideological model of military behavior through dissecting important events and dimensions (of the political, economic, and ideological nature) in Chávez and Maduro’s administrations. Through these events, the article aims to explain how the transformation of the armed forces into a political actor during the Chavista governments happened.; (AN 58916278) |
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The defence performance measurement framework: measuring the performance of defence organisations at the strategic level by Soares, Joaquim; Letens, Geert; Vallet, Nathalie; Van Bockhaven, Wouter; Keathley-Herring, Heather; Van Aken, Eileen. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p99-122, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTAs the gap between strategic commitments and budgetary constraints continues to grow, defence organisations have introduced performance management initiatives to support decision-making and to improve governance. However, introducing managerial practices in public organisations, including defence, proves to be challenging. As performance management initiatives within defence suffer from an implementation gap, strategic benefits are not being harnessed. In our study, we first exploit the results of a systematic literature review to better anchor the encountered challenges within the literature. We then apply thematic analysis to a unique dataset from twelve NATO countries to propose a new defence-specific performance management framework for the strategic level. As the framework preserves the benefits of existing initiatives while mitigating most recorded challenges, it is proposed as a new guide for designing and assessing defence performance management efforts. Thereby, professionals and scholars are provided with a powerful instrument to address the implementation gap. Moreover, the theoretical and empirical lens adopted facilitates alignment between performance management initiatives, defence policy, defence strategy, and strategic objectives. Notably, policy goals and strategic “ends” are clearly connected to critical processes and resources. Thereby, the proposed framework better supports discussions with key defence stakeholders pertaining to the gap between commitments and constraints.; (AN 58916304) |
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Master spoiler: a strategic value of Kessler Syndrome by Doboš, Bohumil; Pražák, Jakub. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p123-137, 15p; Abstract: ABSTRACTMassive chain reaction among the orbital debris population, also known as Kessler Syndrome, is generally perceived as a universally hostile scenario. However, the article argues that intentional massive pollution of orbits might be a tool in weak space powers’ strategic arsenal. Given the technological restrictions and irreversible escalatory potential of such a step, its utilization is, nonetheless, extremely limited. It is argued that total spoiling of the utilization of space services and access to outer space would be viable only to a very low number of actors in scenarios of grave threat to their existence, territorial integrity or survival of their regimes.; (AN 58916274) |
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Coalition of the unwilling and unable: European realignment and the future of American geopolitics by Cladi, Lorenzo. Defence Studies, January 2022, Vol. 22 Issue: Number 1 p138-140, 3p; (AN 58916288) |
Defense and Security Analysis
Volume 38, no. 1, January 2022
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The mismatch: Royal Australian Navy maritime constabulary 1955–2020 by Bailey, Mark L.. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p1-30, 30p; Abstract: ABSTRACTLarge-scale illegal fishing commenced in Australian coastal reefs 1970. Since, the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has been “out of synch” with matching its Tier 2 constabulary vessels to their mission. The pattern is that “mission goalposts” shift post-acquisition, reflecting changes to UNCLOS. Post-WWII, the RAN employed wartime escorts in patrol roles, and wartime launches for littoral constabulary. The RAN has recreated this mix in the twentyfirst century. This paper traces this process and associated problems. Minimum resources are assigned to constabulary functions in peacetime, yet the units involved are arguably the most operational and politically sensitive. Vessel unsuitability has consistently meant personnel problems, over-use of constabulary vessels, and high maintenance costs. Australia's strategic situation is deteriorating towards a point where the rising risk demands mobilisation responses. This would include rapid acquisition of large numbers of Tier 2 assets to meet existing and conflict low-mix roles.; (AN 59204563) |
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U.S. Presidents’ use of drone warfare by Lushenko, Paul. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p31-52, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTScholars often reduce America's use of drones to a bureaucratic process. While this enables them to recognise shifts in America's use of strikes since 2002, they cannot adequately explain such change over time. Rather, I argue that America's use of strikes is a function of presidents' decisions. Presidents adopt strategic and legal-normative cognitive frames that shape their decisions to use strikes. I use this typology to study crucial and pathway cases during the Obama and Trump administrations. I show that presidents' decisions to use drones are made to achieve state andsocial goals. The balance between these aims is informed by, and constitutive of, presidents' strategic and legal-normative frames. Understanding America's use of drones as a leader-driven practice suggests that the legitimacy of strikes may relate more to their impact on the relationship between norms and interests, and not the military or political nature of targets, as some ethicists claim.; (AN 59204561) |
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Israel’s Intelligence gathering and analysis for the target assassination of Baha Abu al-Ata (2019) by Segell, Glen. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p53-73, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTOn 12 November 2019 Baha Abu al-Ata, a leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza was targeted assassinated by Israel. Intelligence was the driver of the operation – information and data were the components of intelligence gathering enabling informed decision-making via defence and security analysis. There was effective co-ordination and co-operation between the civilian government, the Israel Defense Force’s Units Skylark, Moran, 504, 8200 and 9900, and the Israel Security Agency. Policy and technicalities were integrated through civil–military relations. The methodology used six sets of different types of intelligence gathering, analysis and risk assessment that were separate yet simultaneously were asking: why, who, when, where, how (what weapon), and assessing repercussions.; (AN 59204558) |
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Artificial intelligence at the operational level of war by Davis, Steven I.. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p74-90, 17p; Abstract: ABSTRACTArtificial intelligence (AI) is an emerging technology with widespread applications. The National Defense Strategy highlights the importance of AI to military operations for the United States to retain an advantage against its near-peer competitors. To fully realise this advantage, it will be necessary to integrate AI not only at the tactical level but also at the operational level of war. AI can be integrated into the complex task of operational planning most efficiently by subdividing it into its component operational functions, which can be processed by narrow AI. This organisation reduces problems to a size that can be parsed by an AI and maintains human oversight over machine supported decision-making.; (AN 59204562) |
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UN peacekeeping and Chinese Private Security Companies: assessing demand factors for China by Spearin, Christopher. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p91-105, 15p; Abstract: ABSTRACTUsing China’s UN peacekeeping as a foil, the article explores the demand factors that inform the usage of Chinese Private Security Companies (PSCs) to protect Chinese economic interests and nationals abroad. The article makes three assertions. First, compared to Chinese peacekeepers, PSCs can offer a more focused and responsive presence overseas, a presence that is increasingly demanded by the Chinese leadership and citizenry. Second, Chinese PSCs can provide a less prominent footprint for when Chinese agendas and approaches, despite the desire to maintain a policy of non-interference, inevitably clash with local political dynamics and actors. Third, when considering Chinese peacekeepers that increasingly face the pressure to apply lethal violence, Chinese policy regarding the PSC employment of firearms constrains more robust PSC responses to security challenges that might further inflame sensitive matters regarding non-interference.; (AN 59204556) |
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The unsettled foundation: self-management and its implications for Yugoslavia’s policy of Total National Defence by Horncastle, James. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p106-121, 16p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhilst scholars have examined the long-term political, social, and cultural dynamics with regards to Yugoslavia’s collapse, the military has largely escaped similar scrutiny. This paper explores the League of Communists of Yugoslavia’s attempt to solve the nationalist problems of Yugoslavia through the ideology of self-management, and how the failure to do so affected the strategy of Total National Defence. The republics were able to construct their own armed forces due to Total National Defence’s devolution of powers and self-management making changes to the policy extremely difficult for the federal government and Yugoslav People’s Army.; (AN 59204560) |
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Terrorism futures: evolving technology and TTPs use by Cline, Lawrence E.. Defense and Security Analysis, January 2022, Vol. 38 Issue: Number 1 p122-123, 2p; (AN 59204559) |
Democratization
Volume 29, no. 2, February 2022
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Dissatisfied, uninformed or both? Democratic satisfaction, political knowledge and the acceptance of clientelism in a new democracy by Gherghina, Sergiu; Saikkonen, Inga; Bankov, Petar. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p211-231, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIn many countries, voters are targeted with clientelistic and programmatic electoral offers. Existing research explores the demand side of clientelism, but we still know very little about what determines voters’ acceptance of clientelistic and programmatic electoral offers. This article builds a novel theoretical framework on the role that democratic dissatisfaction and political knowledge play in shaping voters’ acceptance of different types of electoral offers. We test the implications of the theory with a survey experiment conducted after the 2019 local elections in Bulgaria. Our results show that low-knowledge voters and those who are dissatisfied with the performance of democracy and democratic institutions are more likely to accept clientelistic offers from politicians. The findings contribute to the literature on electoral clientelism and political attitudes.; (AN 58872013) |
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Foreign direct investment and democratic survival: a sectoral approach by Kim, Nam Kyu. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p232-252, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTHow do foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows affect democratic survival? No study has examined how FDI influences the likelihood of democratic survival, although many studies have studied the effect of regime type on FDI inflows. The previous finding that FDI contributes to authoritarian survival and decreases prospects for democratization does not answer this question since determinants of democratic transitions are clearly distinct from those of democratic survival. I argue that FDI in non-primary sectors is more likely than FDI in primary sectors to contribute to democratic survival since non-primary FDI is likely to produce growth-enhancing effects through upstream and downstream linkages in the host economy and facilitate the diffusion of democratic ideas and norms originating from the West. To overcome the problem of the sectoral FDI data's poor coverage, I exploit an exogenous variation in FDI inflows by utilizing a country's geographical distance from developed economies. Using a sample of democracies from 1970 to 2010, I find that inward FDI, instrumented by market proximity to developed economies, is associated with an increased likelihood of democratic survival. The analysis of primary and non-primary FDI also provides supporting evidence.; (AN 58872006) |
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How electoral competition shapes local public goods provision in South Africa by Zimbalist, Zack. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p253-275, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article aims to explain stark local-level inequalities in public goods access in South Africa and put forth a new framework as to how local electoral competitiveness and accountability influence public service delivery. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, the article shows that local electoral competitiveness (or ruling party dominance) drives variation in accountability and public goods provision at the local level. In competitive municipalities, South Africa's robust fully decentralized democracy and independent media, along with institutionalized accountability mechanisms, allow citizens, dissenting ruling party members, and opposition figures to exert positive pressures on public goods delivery. By contrast, in municipalities dominated by the ruling party, accountability mechanisms are less likely to be effectively utilized and local governments face less pressure to deliver some of the goods that citizens need most—water, sanitation, and refuse removal.; (AN 58872020) |
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Gender impartiality of public institutions, religiosity, and satisfaction with democracy: findings from Turkey by Sahin, Osman; Akboga, Sema. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p276-295, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTPrevious literature demonstrated that gender inequality is a major challenge for democratic consolidation. However, research that studies the effect of gender inequality on citizens’ satisfaction with democracy is limited. This study contributes to this literature by exploring the relationship between citizens’ perceptions of gender impartiality of public institutions and satisfaction with democracy in Turkey, where gender inequality is an acute problem. Analysis of a nationally representative survey showed that the perception of gender impartiality of public institutions is a major factor explaining citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. Results also revealed that perceptions of gender impartiality of public institutions affect citizens’ evaluations of the long-term performance of democracy. Another finding is that religiosity moderates the effect of perceptions of gender impartiality of public institutions on citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. We conclude that gender inequality is not a peripheral issue to democratic consolidation in Turkey but a social problem that remains at the heart of it.; (AN 58872016) |
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The democraticness of traditional political systems in Africa by Neupert-Wentz, Clara; Kromrey, Daniela; Bayer, Axel. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p296-319, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTTraditional political systems (TPS) are an important part of the political landscape in Africa. They govern subnational communities and differ from nation states, both in their institutional set-up as well as in their legitimacy. Yet, we have little comparative knowledge on these political systems and, in particular, whether they can be described as democratic. In this article, we analyse the democraticness of TPS based on a new expert survey. Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), we show that the more than 140 ethnic groups we analyse vary meaningfully in their democraticness. Measures of public preference input and of political process control contribute particularly to a latent measure of democraticness. Furthermore, we find some indication for regionally interdependent institutions, with slightly more democratic systems in Southern Africa and less democratic systems in West Africa. Yet, no such interdependence exists between the state and the group level. Finally, we find that more hierarchically organized political systems, kings, and chiefs, as well as those organized in segments, are on average less democratic, while the presence of elders is associated with higher levels of democraticness.; (AN 58872008) |
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Use of past collective traumas, fear and conspiracy theories for securitization of the opposition and authoritarianisation: the Turkish case by Yilmaz, Ihsan; Shipoli, Erdoan. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p320-336, 17p; Abstract: ABSTRACTSeveral studies have analysed different aspects of Turkey’s authoritarianisation under the AKP rule. However, there is still a gap in this literature with regards to the role of instrumentalization of narratives and discursive strategies in this authoritarian turn which has been successfully engineered by the AKP. This article addresses this gap and shows how securitizing narratives based on fear, trauma, nostalgia, ontological insecurity, grievances, and conspiracy theories have been used by President Erdoğan and his AKP as psycho-political tools of authoritarianisation. It argues that these tools have shown to be useful in securitizing the opposition to consolidate power, change the governing structure, and take other extraordinary measures, while legitimizing these acts for the public. In an attempt to provide a holistic picture, this article analyses how the AKP has securitized almost all of the significant opposition socio-political identities, groups and parties in Turkey. This study contributes to securitization theory by shedding light on the use of traumas, conspiracy theories, and fear in the securitization process, in legitimizing securitization and authoritarianisation.; (AN 58872009) |
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Populism and the military: symbiosis and tension in Bolsonaro’s Brazil by Hunter, Wendy; Vega, Diego. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p337-359, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTPopulist politicians surrounded by military allies are a frequent sight in countries that have experienced democratic backsliding. Populists sometimes seek protection in the military, who in turn leverage the relationship to advance their own interests. Despite the recent wave of populism, the burgeoning literature on it has not devoted due attention to analysing the populist-military relationship; its origins, outcomes, and tensions. This article analyses the Brazilian military’s re-appearance under President Jair Bolsonaro. Absent the usual institutional support bases on which Brazilian presidents rely, Bolsonaro has cultivated military support with resources and positions that allow officers expanded political power and privilege. An equilibrium held for the government’s first two years. Thereafter, growing reservations about propping up an increasingly unpopular president, especially by heeding orders that would threaten their professional integrity, put in question the future of the armed forces as a pillar of the Bolsonaro administration. At the same time, the military’s substantial expansion in government and state positions under Bolsonaro raises the specter of elevated military autonomy under future administrations. This would be problematic for popular sovereignty, a cornerstone of democracy, even if uniformed officers are not saber-rattling, mounting coups or occupying presidential office.; (AN 58872019) |
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Party strength and party weakness in transitional elections: Myanmar’s National League for Democracy in 2015 by Ladd, Jeremy Martin. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p360-378, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe National League for Democracy secured an astonishing electoral victory in Myanmar’s 2015 general elections after nearly three decades of repression of the party. Despite this victory, there are conflicting accounts on whether the NLD was a strong or a weak party leading into these elections. Appealing to data from an original survey and extensive qualitative field research, this article measures the NLD’s strength in 2015 and explores the mechanisms behind it. When operationalized as reported contact with voters, the NLD appears to have been a very strong party, but this strength can be explained by the same widespread enthusiasm for change, for democracy, and for Aung San Suu Kyi that existing scholarship appeals to in explaining the party’s victory in general. This finding has important implications for the NLD in the 2020 and future elections, as well as for our understanding of the dynamics of party strength in transitional regimes and new democracies more generally. Most importantly, the strategies parties have employed in transitions are unlikely to be successful in subsequent elections, as widespread enthusiasm and momentum gives way to everyday politics, but newly governing parties are likely to keep appealing to them precisely because they were so successful.; (AN 58872012) |
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Power consolidation with welfare designs? The emergence of old-age pensions in nondemocratic regimes around the world by Grünewald, Aline. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p379-403, 25p; Abstract: ABSTRACTOld-age pensions are the most widespread social security programmes around the world that in many countries account for a huge part of the national budget. Based on the PENLEG dataset (Pension Legislation around the World, 1880–2010), this article answers the question whether the political regime type has affected the choice of a specific pension design when implementing old-age pensions for the first time. The global study shows that nondemocratic regimes were more likely to implement social insurance designs, as these pension designs are best suited to bind citizens to the state and to target benefits on groups that are essential for regime survival. In contrast, the study can only find weak evidence that electoral autocracies were less likely to implement social insurance designs than closed autocracies. Moreover, colonial legacies mattered strongly. Especially former French colonies were more likely to implement social insurance designs.; (AN 58872007) |
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Conditionality & coercion: electoral clientelism in Eastern Europe by Kakhishvili, Levan. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p404-405, 2p; (AN 58872015) |
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Watermelon Democracy: Egypt’s Turbulent Transition by Ridge, Hannah M.. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p406-407, 2p; (AN 58872018) |
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Power-Sharing in Europe, Past Practices, Present Cases, and Future Directions by Raffoul, Alexandre W.. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p407-409, 3p; (AN 58872017) |
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The politics of presidential impeachment by Thangasamy, Andrew. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p409-411, 3p; (AN 58872010) |
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Authoritarian gravity centers a cross-regional study of authoritarian promotion and diffusion by Tomini, Luca. Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p411-412, 2p; (AN 58872014) |
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Correction Democratization, February 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p413-413, 1p; (AN 58872011) |
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China’s new Red Guards: the return of radicalism and the rebirth of Mao Zedong by Zhou, Yingnan Joseph. Democratization, January 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 1 p200-202, 3p; (AN 58518274) |
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Constraining dictatorship: from personalized rule to institutionalized regimes by Mitrokhina, Evgeniya. Democratization, January 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 1 p204-206, 3p; (AN 58518275) |
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The moral economy of elections in Africa. Democracy, voting and virtue by Haynes, Jeffrey. Democratization, January 2022, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 1 p208-209, 2p; (AN 58518276) |
Demokratizatsiya
Volume 29, no. 2, April 2021
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Identity Politics as Pretext and Prediction: Vote-Buying and Group Boundaries in Ukraine by Schlegel, Simon. Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, April 2021, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p113-133, 21p; Abstract: Abstract:This article examines identity discourses in Ukraine through the functions they perform in political clientelism. The cases analyzed here suggest two such functions. First, identity politics can serve as a pretext for a patron to offer resources to the electorate, allegedly without expecting anything in exchange. Second, identity politics can help patrons to split clients into clear-cut groups and thereby make the exchange of resources for votes more predictable. A better understanding of these two functions will help improve explanations of the cataclysmic political changes that can occur if they fail.; (AN 55809336) |
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Mixed Values and Societal Constraints: The Weak Prospects for Authoritarianism in Ukraine by Matsiyevsky, Yuriy. Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, April 2021, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p135-158, 24p; Abstract: Abstract:Given the global rise of illiberalism and Ukraine’s post-revolutionary turbulence, what are the risks that the war-torn society descends into authoritarianism? In contrast to numerous warnings, I argue that none of the modern forms of authoritarianism is likely to take hold in post-Euromaidan Ukraine. Following the congruence thesis—the central concept of political culture theory, which posits that the regime is stable insofar as its authority pattern meets people’s authority beliefs—authoritarian congruence is hardly achievable in post-Euromaidan Ukraine thanks to citizens’ support for the liberal notion of democracy and emancipative values. Any attempt to impose authoritarian rule from above would face the cumulative resistance effect produced by structural, institutional, and agency-based factors.; (AN 55809337) |
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The Belarusian Revolution: Sources, Interim Outcomes, and Lessons To Be Learned by Moshes, Arkady; Nizhnikau, Ryhor. Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, April 2021, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p159-181, 23p; Abstract: Abstract:This article combines insights from the literatures on revolutions and nonviolent protest with empirical analysis of recent developments in Belarus to assess the causes and outcomes of the Belarusian Revolution. It makes three interrelated arguments. First, structural conditions—the decline of the paternalist model of state-society relations and ongoing societal modernization—were the fundamental cause of the revolution. The popular revolt, in turn, was triggered by a set of tactical mistakes on the part of the ruling regime. Second, while the personalist regime showed its vulnerability, the opposition’s ideological, leadership, and organizational deficiencies, as well as the unfavorable international context, facilitated the regime’s survival in the short term. Finally, although the regime cannot return to the status quo ante and will apparently depart from the scene, there is an imminent risk that the domestic impasse will be broken by external actors, namely Russia, thus preventing the revolution from achieving its goals.; (AN 55809338) |
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Strategic Transgressions: Russia’s Deviant Sovereignty and the Myth of Evgenii Prigozhin by Østbø, Jardar. Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, April 2021, Vol. 29 Issue: Number 2 p183-207, 25p; Abstract: Abstract:This article is the first academic study of Russia as a “rogue state.” From a moderately constructivist perspective and relying on Nincic’s distinction between primary and secondary deviance, it examines the paradox that Russia demonstratively violates some norms of international relations while insisting on the primacy of international law. After reviewing the literature on rogue states and deviance in international relations, I outline the disagreements between Russia and the West on state sovereignty. In a depoliticized world, Russia’s insistence on Westphalian sovereignty is increasingly considered deviant or criminal. Officially, Russia protests this process. Unofficially, Russia actively defies it by dealing with warlords, supporting dictators, and projecting a criminal image. Key here are business structures that are allegedly linked to the infamous businessman Evgenii Prigozhin, the myth of whom conveys a message that Russia is the global master of “deviant sovereignty.”; (AN 55809339) |
Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict
Volume 14, no. 3, September 2021
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Letter from the editor by Lemieux, Anthony F.. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p1-1, 1p; (AN 59204411) |
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Does repression work?: Measuring repression’s effect on protest using an instrumental variable model by Asal, Victor; Brown, Joseph M.. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p2-16, 15p; Abstract: ABSTRACTProtest and repression are reciprocally related. Governments respond with repression when faced with challenges to their rule. Dissidents choose their strategies, turning out to protest or staying home, based on the state’s behaviour. But what effect does repression have on protestors’ decisions? The existing literature is of two minds on this issue. One school of thought argues that repression suppresses protest. A second school of thought argues that repression increases protest by inducing public backlash against the regime. Efforts to adjudicate these claims are complicated by the endogeneity between protest and repression. We use US economic development assistance as an instrument for government repression. Governments seeking US development assistance eschew the repression of protestors. An instrumental variable analysis of the MAROB Middle East dataset shows that repression (instrumented on US development aid commitments) discourages protest by a dissident group. The likelihood of protest decreases by roughly 20% in a given year if the group is repressed. The need for an instrumental variable model is highlighted by the fact that uninstrumented regressions show the opposite effect, giving the spurious appearance of backlash. Unfortunately for protestors, the appearance is deceiving. Repression works.; (AN 59204410) |
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Intergroup images mediate the relationships between government abuse, sociopolitical orientations, and political action by Kearns, Erin M.; Federico, Christopher; Asal, Victor; Walsh, James Igoe; Betus, Allison E.; Lemieux, Anthony F.. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p17-39, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhat factors impact how people mobilize against state human rights abuses? Drawing on Image Theory, we examine how perceptions of an out-group, government abuse, and sociopolitical orientations impact political action. Using an online survey-embedded experiment with a sample of 2,932 U.S. adults, we manipulated two factors: (1) the level of government abuse and (2) the risk of punishment for taking action against the state, while also including social dominance orientation (SDO) and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) as covariates. Participants indicated their propensity to engage in and justify both protest and violence. Participants rated the out-group as oppressive and evil. State abuse of human rights was associated with more oppressive and evil out-group images. Oppressive out-group images increased protest engagement and justification, whereas evil out-group images increased violence engagement and justification. Abuse increased all forms of action and justifications for them. Oppressive and evil images mediated many of the relationships between abuse, SDO, and RWA on one hand and political action on the other.; (AN 59204412) |
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On the brink: identifying psychological indicators of societal destabilization in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea by Hoyle, Aiden; van den Berg, Helma; Doosje, Bertjan; Kitzen, Martijn. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p40-54, 15p; Abstract: ABSTRACTContemporary hostile actors are increasingly attempting to destabilize targeted states’ civilian domains via malign influence activities. With this civilian focus, societal destabilization is at least partly psychological. However, empirical evidence of a psychological dimension to societal destabilization is lacking. We assess the potential of five pertinent psychological factors to indicate societal destabilization using data captured about citizens living in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, prior to the outbreak of conflict in 2014. Analysts state that Russian influence activities contributed to societal destabilization in these regions. Using preregistered analyses, we contrast the self-reported levels of our selected psychological factors in these citizens against the self-reported levels of citizens from contextually and culturally similar societies. We confirmed that levels of political and social trust were significantly lower, and the perception of economic instability was significantly higher in citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Although observational, the results point to the relevance of these psychological factors for understanding societal destabilization provoked by influence activities.; (AN 59204409) |
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Fake news: the effects of social media disinformation on domestic terrorism by Piazza, James A.. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p55-77, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis study tests whether social media disinformation contributes to domestic terrorism within countries. I theorize that disinformation disseminated by political actors online through social media heightens political polarization within countries and that this, in turn, produces an environment where domestic terrorism is more likely to occur. I test this theory using data from more than 150 countries for the period 2000–2017. I find that propagation of disinformation through social media drives domestic terrorism. Using mediation tests I also verify that disinformation disseminated through social media increases domestic terrorism by, among other processes, enhancing political polarization within society.; (AN 59204408) |
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Come one, come all: individual-level diversity among anti-fascists by Logan, Michael K.; Ligon, Gina S.. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, January 2022, Vol. 15 Issue: Number 1 p78-93, 16p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe present study examined the individual differences of radical anti-fascist sympathizers who were federally charged for crimes committed in Portland, Oregon, between May and October of 2020. Anti-fascist sympathizers were also compared to other types of individual extremists on demographics (age, gender, and ethnicity). The anti-fascist sympathizers examined in this study were on average 28 years old, male, and white. In addition, the nature of their charges were content coded for a subsample of radical anti-fascist sympathizers indicted at the federal level. The most frequent federal charges were assault on a federal officer, failure to obey a lawful order, and civil disorder. Using Bruce Hoffman’s criteria for defining terrorism, these data show that this sample of radical anti-fascists’ targeting and tactics do indeed warrant examination from terrorist scholars. Given that radical anti-fascist sympathizers have waged a sustained campaign of prolonged violence, more research is needed on the antecedents to their joining such movements and the efficacy of policy recommendations to diffuse them.; (AN 59204407) |