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Journal Titles: RUSI JOURNAL --- WORLD POLITICS
RUSI Journal
Volume 166, no. 5, July 2021
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Editor’s Note by De Angelis, Emma. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p9-9, 1p; (AN 58978741) |
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The Military Contribution to Strategic Health Diplomacy by Horne, Simon; McCrae, Laura. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p10-21, 12p; Abstract: Strategic health diplomacy (SHD) involves governments actively working to improve public health abroad and, at the same time, further their own foreign policy agenda. While military assets are often used in soft power roles that might enable such work (defence engagement), the contribution of Defence to SHD is not well articulated. Simon Horne and Laura McCrae draw on recent research to understand how defence assets can contribute to SHD, the mechanism by which health impacts deliver strategic security objectives and the most effective means to deliver those effects. They challenge approaches where SHD is considered primarily in terms of UK influence, showing how the real benefit to the UK depends on the delivery of large-scale, sustainable benefit to the partner country. ◼; (AN 58978737) |
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Terrorism, Slavery and the Evolution of the ‘Crime–Terror Nexus’ by Pollichieni, Luciano; Mumford, Andrew. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p22-30, 9p; Abstract: This article argues for a new application of the concept of the ‘crime–terror nexus’ by highlighting the increased prevalence of criminal engagement in modern slavery and human trafficking (MS/HT) by contemporary terrorist groups. Using the Islamic State and Boko Haram as case studies, Luciano Pollichieni and Andrew Mumford explain how such organisations are involved in MS/HT, and explore the economic and operational advantages they generate from involvement in these illegal activities. The authors call for new research in this field and flag the growing links between terrorism and slavery for counterterrorist practitioners.◼; (AN 58978742) |
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The Results of War Are Never Final? by Toprani, Anand; Murray, Nicholas; Dennis, Michael. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p32-43, 12p; Abstract: Should a Sino-American War start, how will the US deal with the inevitable military setbacks? Most importantly, what would happen if the US loses not simply a battle, but rather a series of engagements culminating in an unmistakable defeat that results in unfavourable peace terms? The US may not like thinking about losing, but considering China’s growing capabilities, it can no longer assume victory. Anand Toprani, Nicholas Murray and Michael Dennis argue that, if the US thinks about the consequences of war, and cooperating and working together as a country, it can avoid a conflict with China, and recover more quickly and equitably if it does fight and lose. ◼; (AN 58978744) |
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NATO and the Future of Europe–US Relations after Afghanistan by Owen, David. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p44-48, 5p; Abstract: Lord David Owen reflects on the history and future of Europe–US relations. ◼; (AN 58978736) |
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Offset in a Post-Brexit World by Matthews, Ron; Anicetti, Jonata. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p50-62, 13p; Abstract: Prior to the launch of the European Procurement Directive, the UK’s erstwhile offset model was hailed a success. However, the directive compelled the UK to abandon its approach as the intention of the European Commission was to suppress and eventually remove offset from Europe’s defence-industrial landscape. Ron Matthews and Jonata Anicetti explain that Brexit has uncoupled UK defence procurement from the directive, creating the opportunity to reintroduce an industrial participation (IP) policy. Indeed, the Ministry of Defence has already taken the first tentative steps, as revealed in its March 2021 Defence and Security Industrial Strategy. This raises the question as to whether a ‘version 2.0’ IP policy will build on the original model’s success, and similarly reflect cooperation rather than coercion.◼; (AN 58978745) |
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Getting Tactical Communications for Land Forces Right by Reynolds, Nick. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p64-75, 12p; Abstract: Tactical ground combat formations need good tactical communications systems to be effective. New battlespace management technology occurs in the context of an increasingly contested electromagnetic spectrum, with serious implications for digital communications systems and networks architecture. Nick Reynolds argues that simplicity, resilience and repairability should be combined with better education about communications systems and networks and the electromagnetic spectrum, to ensure that these systems remain operational under adversarial conditions while still tactically assisting users. Furthermore, militaries should move away from aiming for assured communications and connectivity at all times, for even modernised systems will either be vulnerable to degradation and denial or will create a signature that may be exploited for enemy targeting and fires.◼; (AN 58978746) |
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Precision Strike by Jenzen-Jones, N R; Shanley, Jack. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p76-92, 17p; Abstract: This article examines the development of precision guided munitions (PGMs) from the earliest proto-PGMs of the late 18thcentury to the miniaturised, semi-autonomous forms in present service. N R Jenzen-Jones and Jack Shanley trace the history of these revolutionary weapons and examine how their battlefield roles and real-world use cases have evolved over time.◼; (AN 58978738) |
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Russia, BRICS, and the Disruption of Global Order by Masara, Wiriranai Brilliant. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p94-95, 2p; (AN 58978743) |
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Navalny: Putin’s Nemesis, Russia’s Future? by Seskuria, Natia. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p96-97, 2p; (AN 58978732) |
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When Democracies Choose War: Politics, Public Opinion, and the Marketplace of Ideas by Mortimer, Edward. The RUSI Journal, July 2021, Vol. 166 Issue: Number 5 p98-99, 2p; (AN 58978739) |
Security Dialogue
Volume 53, no. 1, February 2022
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Unmasking the racism of orthodox international relations/international political economy theory by Hobson, John M. Security Dialogue, February 2022, Vol. 53 Issue: Number 1 p3-20, 18p; Abstract: This article emerges out of the racism debate in Security Dialogue(May 2020). It takes its cue from the passing claim that Orientalism/Eurocentrism is different from racism and that the former is deemed to be relatively innocuous while the latter is viewed as egregious. Here I reveal how Eurocentrism is equivalent to cultural racism. I show how racism has outwardly shapeshifted through time in everyday life and world politics, and how orthodox international relations theory’s racist trajectory has mirrored this. Since 1945, modern orthodox international relations theory has covered its racism with a non-racist mask through a sublimated discourse that focuses on cultural difference but is white racism in disguise. Unmasking modern international relations/international political economy theory exposes this sublimated racist discourse by revealing its racist double move: first, it whitewashes racism and denies its presence in the conduct of world politics and the global economy in the last three centuries, thereby providing an apologia for racist practices; second, it advances subliminal cultural-racist analytical/explanatory frameworks. I close by solving the conundrum as to how white orthodox international relations scholars who are most probably non-racist (though not anti-racist) in their personal lives embrace, albeit unwittingly, racist theories of world politics and the global economy.; (AN 58946474) |
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Memoirs of women-in-conflict: Ugandan ex-combatants and the production of knowledge on security and peacebuilding by Curtis, Devon EA; Ebila, Florence; Martin de Almagro, Maria. Security Dialogue, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: The limitations of conventional accounts of security and peacebuilding drawing upon the ‘expert’ knowledge of military elites, policymakers and civil society representatives have been widely recognized. This has led security and peacebuilding policymakers, including through the United Nations Women, Peace and Security agenda, to search for alternative forms of knowledge, such as memoirs, photographs or oral histories, that better reflect lived experiences within local communities. Building on existing work on memoirs as knowledge production artefacts and on feminist security studies, this article demystifies experiential security knowledge through an analysis of three memoirs written by women ex-combatants in Uganda. We argue that while the memoirs offer complex and contradictory narratives about women ex-combatants, they are also the products of transnational mediated processes, whereby the interests of power translate complex narratives into consolidated representations and sturdy tropes of the abducted African woman ex-combatant. This means that although the three memoirs provide some hints as to transformative ways of thinking about security and peace, and offer dynamic accounts of personal experiences, they also reflect the politics of dominant representational practices.; (AN 59028675) |
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‘Yeah, this one will be a good one’, or Tacit knowledge, prophylaxis and the border: Exploring everyday health security decisionmaking by Ferhani, Adam J. Security Dialogue, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: Approaching health security from a practice-theoretical perspective, this article advances our understanding of the everyday and locality in health security decisionmaking, and is guided by the following two questions: How is it determined when a health security threat is likely to be present at a point of entry? What knowledge informs everyday health security decisions at borders? Markedly little is known about health security decisionmaking, though conventional wisdom tells us that health security decisions are based on stringent processes and – importantly – anchored in epidemiological knowledge. The assumed primacy of epidemiological knowledge in health security decisionmaking is well illustrated by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: evidence-based responses emerged globally following sophisticated epidemiologic investigation. Are health security decisions always rooted in epidemiology? A 12-month period of non-participant observation of Port Health Officers – who, under the auspices of the 2005 International Health Regulations, are responsible for numerous prophylactic measures at the UK border – gives a unique, privileged entry point for understanding the health security decisionmaking process and tells a story that both questions the centrality of epidemiology and foregrounds the role of tacit knowledge and intuition in health security decisionmaking. This article, which draws on insights from the science and technology studies literature on tacit knowledge, shows how observed health risk taxonomies and corollary decisions in prophylactic border security are predicated almost exclusively on hunches and ‘just knowing’ that something ‘doesn’t feel right’.; (AN 59089076) |
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The impact of (counter-)terrorism on public (in)security in Nigeria: A vernacular analysis by Oyawale, Akinyemi. Security Dialogue, 20220101, Issue: Number Preprints; Abstract: This article examines the impact of (counter-)terrorism on public (in)security in Nigeria through engaging with non-elite understandings of ongoing conflicts in the northeast. Through 41 in-depth interviews carried out during a four-month fieldwork exercise with internally displaced persons in Nigeria, the article contributes to current (counter-)terrorism research on Nigeria and Africa by examining the lived experiences of non-traditional security ‘practitioners’, thus enriching current debates about ‘deepening’ and ‘broadening’ the security concept within critical security studies. The images of security that emerge show that the public in Nigeria adopt two main discursive devices, that is, a story and an interpretative repertoire, to discursively position themselves in relation to Boko Haram, the state and societal discourses and practices. Two discourses are prominent, namely a ‘(counter-)terrorist people’ discourse and a ‘kafir’or ‘infidel’ discourse, which are constructed around ‘ethnic’ and ‘religious’ identities. This vernacular study of public understandings of (counter-)terrorism in Nigeria achieves three primary objectives: (i) it serves to invigorate debates around the meaning and practice of (in)security in Nigeria, (ii) it expands public (in)security debates on Africa, and (iii) it enriches vernacular research debate through foregrounding the experiences of groups and individuals who experience insecurity in their everyday lives.; (AN 58789915) |
Security Studies
Volume 30, no. 5, October 2021
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Budget Breaker? The Financial Cost of US Military Alliances by Alley, Joshua; Fuhrmann, Matthew. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p661-690, 30p; Abstract: AbstractHow do alliance commitments affect US military spending? This question is at the heart of debates about the value of alliances and the future of US grand strategy. One perspective, which we call the budget hawk view, asserts that alliances are exorbitantly expensive, as they require military investments to deter third-party adversaries and reassure allies, encourage free riding, and facilitate reckless allied behavior. A competing view, which we label the bargain hunter perspective, claims that US alliance commitments are relatively cheap and might even reduce military spending. Allies provide key military capabilities, reassurance and extended deterrence are cheaper than they might initially seem, and alliances reduce the need for costly military interventions by promoting peace. Despite the importance of this debate, few studies have attempted to determine how alliance commitments affect US military spending. We use over-time variation in the number of US alliance commitments to estimate their financial toll. A statistical model of US defense expenditures from 1947 to 2019 shows that one new alliance commitment has a large positive association with defense budget levels in subsequent years. Military alliances benefit the United States in many ways but, consistent with the budget hawk view, they are expensive.; (AN 58749484) |
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The Price of Protection: Explaining Success and Failure of US Alliance Burden-Sharing Pressure by Blankenship, Brian. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p691-724, 34p; Abstract: AbstractExisting scholarship on alliance burden sharing focuses on explaining why smaller allies often undercontribute relative to their larger partners. However, the literature largely neglects the role played by great-power pressure in shaping burden-sharing outcomes. I argue that rather than being a product of rational free riding, allies’ defense efforts are often a response to their patron’s threat of abandonment. When a patron can more credibly threaten to reduce its protection, and when doing so would impose serious costs on allies, the former is better positioned to elicit burden sharing. I test the theory using data on allied burden sharing in US alliances from 1950 to 2010. The results show that allies exhibit higher levels of burden-sharing efforts when they are geographically vulnerable to attack, whereas allies exhibit lower levels of burden sharing when they are in geostrategic locations valuable to the United States.; (AN 58749477) |
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A Reputation versus Prioritization Trade-Off: Unpacking Allied Perceptions of US Extended Deterrence in Distant Regions by Kim, Tongfi; Simón, Luis. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p725-760, 36p; Abstract: AbstractUnder what circumstances is a protégé likely to perceive its patron’s extended deterrence commitments in another region as positive or negative for its own security? Protégés from distant regions see complementary reputational links between the credibility of a patron’s extended deterrence commitments in each other’s region. However, they are in a competitive relationship when it comes to the allocation of the patron’s resources. We call this the reputation versus prioritization trade-off. We argue that whether protégés assign more importance to their patron’s reputation or to being prioritized by said patron is a function of their dynamic perceptions of their regional security environment. These are, in turn, determined by their perception of their patron’s resource constraints and the threat posed by an adversary. To test our argument, we examine how Japan has perceived America’s evolving security commitment in Europe and how Poland has perceived the evolving US commitment in Asia.; (AN 58749478) |
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Strategies of Extended Deterrence: How States Provide the Security Umbrella by Lee, Do Young. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p761-796, 36p; Abstract: AbstractWhat extended deterrence strategies are available to nuclear patrons, and what factors determine which strategy they adopt? How does each strategy manifest as force employment? The bulk of the literature on extended deterrence focuses on its effectiveness. The question of how nuclear patrons select between and employ strategies of extended deterrence, however, has largely been overlooked. Addressing the first, or strategy adoption, question, I argue that the interaction of two variables—(1) the type of threat posed to a client by an enemy; and (2) the likelihood of an enemy’s quick victory over a client—determines a nuclear patron’s strategy among four options: a conventional defense pact, forward conventional deployment, a nuclear defense pact, and forward nuclear deployment. Addressing the second, or strategy implementation, question, I argue that each strategy is embodied as the unique mixture of conventional and nuclear forces pre-positioned in either forward or rear areas. I test my theory of extended deterrence in two ways. First, I conduct a congruence test. Second, I perform two case studies—US extended deterrence to South Korea and the Philippines. I conclude with a discussion of policy implications for the current US security commitments to Seoul and Manila.; (AN 58749483) |
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Rethinking Pathways of Transnational Jihad: Evidence from Lebanese ISIS Recruits by Bou Nassif, Hicham. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p797-822, 26p; Abstract: AbstractWhy do some individuals leave everything behind to join extremist organizations abroad? The literature on foreign fighters has grown impressively and yielded important insights in recent years. Three problems persist, however: (1) scholarship grounded in empirical fieldwork remains uncommon. This deficit reflects the scarcity of micro-level data based on individual profiles of jihadi recruits; (2) the studies available overwhelmingly center on Western jihadists even though the majority of foreign fighters who join groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or al Qaeda hail from Arab countries; (3) an artificial rivalry between different explanatory approaches has produced an inconclusive picture of the determinants of radicalization. In this article, I reconsider the various pathways for transnational Jihadi recruitment by drawing upon a unique dataset pertaining to seventy Lebanese militants. I selectively combine elements from multiple perspectives to ponder the pathways of ISIS recruits, but my conclusions can be modified to apply to other circumstances.; (AN 58749476) |
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Minilateralism and Backlash in the Nuclear Security Summit: The Consequences of Nuclear Governance outside the IAEA by Matchett, Leah. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p823-859, 37p; Abstract: AbstractFrustration with large multilateral organizations is on the rise, leading some states to seek consensus in exclusive “minilateral” groupings. However, there is little to no research on how such an organization relates to the broader multilateral regime. I use the case of the Nuclear Security Summits (NSS) to examine the consequences of exclusion. I find states excluded from the NSS are more likely to criticize the Summits, even where they share policy preferences with included states. A comparison of follow-on initiatives shows that those more associated with the Summits are less likely to gain support from excluded states in the broader regime and that pushback is directly tied to the exclusion of the NSS. This suggests previously underappreciated costs of minilateral organization and the difficulties that can emerge when minilateral organizations attempt to affect a multilateral regime.; (AN 58749480) |
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Market Size and the Political Economy of European Defense by Calcara, Antonio; Simón, Luis. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p860-892, 33p; Abstract: AbstractThere is an intense debate in international relations scholarship on whether the benefits accrued by arms production globalization outweigh the risks of depending on foreign suppliers. Europe is an interesting case: although regional protection could help Europeans mitigate exposure to global actors, the prospect of regional integration generates concerns about autonomy within Europe itself. We depict European defense cooperation as a “two-level playing field,” whereby market size informs a country’s hedging between global-external and European-internal competitors. First tiers push for defense market integration because they expect to be strengthened vis-à-vis global players but also because market size gives them a competitive advantage over fellow Europeans. Second tiers resist market integration, as they worry it might lead to first-tier dominance. To probe our hypotheses, we examine the behavior of two first tiers (France and Germany) and two second tiers (Poland and Sweden) in the context of the European Defense Fund.; (AN 58749482) |
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The Decline in Declarations of War: An Exchange Jus in Bello, Jus Ad Bellum, and The Decline in Declarations of War by Fazal, Tanisha M.. Security Studies, October 2021, Vol. 30 Issue: Number 5 p893-904, 12p; (AN 58749469) |
Small Wars and Insurgencies
Volume 33, no. 1, February 2022
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Advancing private security studies: introduction to the special issue by Cusumano, Eugenio; Kinsey, Christopher. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p1-21, 21p; (AN 58939402) |
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Mercenaries in/and history: the problem of ahistoricism and contextualism in mercenary scholarship by Riemann, Malte. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p22-47, 26p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe history of the mercenary seems little less than the history of organized warfare itself. From the dawn of recorded history to the recent rise of Private Military Companies, mercenaries appear as a historical constant that allows scholars to make grand historical claims about the organisation of force within world history. This article cautions against this view, arguing instead that the analysis of this actor has been compromised by the failure to adequately historicise and contextualize the concept of the mercenary due to the uncritical acceptance that mercenaries are a trans-historical occurrence. Informed by a historicist contextual approach, I show how two foundational characteristics of the mercenary concept, a Westphalian understanding of ‘foreignness’ and a modern account of ‘self-interest’, were absent in the periods preceding the 18thcentury. I demonstrate this absence through an analysis of ‘mercenaries’ in Ancient Greece and the Middle Ages, exposing how the problematization of these actors within their own historical context displays a radical difference if compared to our contemporary understanding of the mercenary. In doing so this article raises awareness to the historical specificity of this seemingly universal concept and cautions against the uncritical backward projection of this concept into the past.; (AN 58939394) |
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Mercenaries and private military corporations in ancient and early medieval South Asia by Roy, Kaushik. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p48-70, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIn India, from the time of emergence of empires in circa 300 BCE till the rise of British power in eighteenth century, military mercenaries and private military companies dominated the politico-military landscape. Premodern India had both secular (military guilds) and religious (based on temples and akharas) military corporations. The mercenaries were mostly marginal peasants and demobilised soldiers. They were hired through the agency of their clan leaders, tribal chieftains or the zamindars (large landlords) in whose villages they resided. Historians argue that the presence of the mercenaries and extra state military corporations prevented the rise of strong states in premodern India. In this paper, based mostly on indigenous sources, I argue that the military mercenaries and the private military corporations of pre-British India were at the forefront of technological development. The mercenaries were the channel through which tools, techniques, and ideas of warfare were transferred. The rulers relied on the mercenaries because of their military skills and in the long run they also proved to be cheaper compared to the cost of maintaining permanently a large regular army.; (AN 58939393) |
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‘Useless and dangerous’? Mercenaries in fourteenth century wars by Casiraghi, Matteo C.M.. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p71-91, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article compares two military formats employed in late Medieval Europe. Italian cities contracted out entire military campaigns whereas European monarchies recruited mercenaries in their armies, led by national commanders. How effective were these private armies? When did mercenaries threaten their employers? The article investigates the enterprises of mercenary captains Castracani and Hawkwood in Italy, and mercenaries in France. Private armies were often effective on the battlefield, though public authorities were not always able to control them. Mercenaries’ military strength and governments’ ability to sanction them were decisive for the outcome of these embryonic forms of civil-military relations.; (AN 58939398) |
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The Social Construction of Mercenaries: German Soldiers in British Service during the Eighteenth Century by Olsen, Helene. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p92-111, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article will explore the differing attitudes among British parliamentarians towards the use of German soldiers in 1756 and 1776. Utilising speech act theory, it will be shown that German soldiers were constructed as mercenaries in 1776 because they were being employed to fight against British subjects – the North American colonists. However, when nearly identical German soldiers were employed to fight against a French adversary in 1756, they were not constructed as mercenaries. It will be concluded that the mercenary as a figure of war is not a static, transhistorical concept with universal characteristics. Rather, the mercenary is socially constructed, and, as such, is only made possible in specific historical and socio-political contexts.; (AN 58939395) |
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Mercenaries in the Congo and Biafra, 1960-1970: Africa’s weapon of choice? by Rookes, Stephen; Bruyère-Ostells, Walter. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p112-129, 18p; Abstract: ABSTRACTOften maligned by academics and international organisations alike, mercenaries are perceived as being a contributory factor to the worsening of conflict and as a threat to democracy. This chapter demonstrates that this reputation is not wholly deserved, and that in certain cases mercenaries have made a valuable contribution to creating stability in highly unstable contexts. Also, this chapter questions certain interpretations relating to the role and identity of mercenaries. Far from being cold-blooded avaricious killers, we show that there is a range of different reasons why someone becomes a mercenary and argue that the aforementioned categorisation has been used as a political tool.; (AN 58939396) |
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Private military companies – Russian great power politics on the cheap? by Østensen, Åse Gilje; Bukkvoll, Tor. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p130-151, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIn a situation where the Russian national self-image and economic realities fail to add up, this article discusses whether Russian private military companies have become low-cost tools to restore Russian great power status. Our findings suggest that whenever these companies are used in a ‘power as outcome’ way, they appear less successful at adding great power status on the cheap and less useful at elite enrichment. In contrast, PMCs seem well suited to make power contributions, and for a low cost, in a ‘power as prestige’ way. In these settings they are also more suitable instruments for informal elite earnings.; (AN 58939401) |
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The UAE’s ‘dogs of war’: boosting a small state’s regional power projection by Krieg, Andreas. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p152-172, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article suggests based on the case study of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that mercenaries as commercial surrogates can become an integral part of an overall effort of military transformation helping regimes in the Middle East to increase military capacity and capability on the battlefield. As the most assertive Arab state post-Arab Spring, the UAE arguably shows the greatest discrepancy between ambitiousness of its strategic objectives and available in-house capacity and capability among states in the region. Consequently, despite its ongoing military transformation, the Emirates more than any other Arab state had to inevitably draw on external surrogates to maintain their military presence in Somalia, Yemen, and Libya. Thereby, the case study of the UAE is quite exceptional in the region, as it has set a new trend for the commercialization of military services at the higher end of the military spectrum when translating capital into military capability and capacity. This in turn confronts Abu Dhabi’s western partners with difficult choices as they rely increasingly on the UAE to bear the burden of conflict in the region.; (AN 58939397) |
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China’s private security companies and the protection of Chinese economic interests abroad by Yuan, Jingdong. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p173-195, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTChina’s private security companies (PSCs) have become increasingly active actors in meeting the growing demands of Chinese companies operating in high-risk foreign environments for protection and security of both their assets and employees. While growing rapidly in recent decades, Chinese PSCs are relatively new in providing overseas services, remain constrained by lack of well-trained and fully-equipped personnel, and operate under legal uncertainties. Nonetheless, they perform critically important functions in protecting and promoting Chinese security and economic interests abroad. This article provides a preliminary analysis of Chinese PSCs’ introduction to the overseas markets and assesses their performances against opportunities and challenges.; (AN 58939390) |
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What does gender got to do with it? PMSCs and privatization of security revisited by Joachim, Jutta; Schneiker, Andrea. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p196-223, 28p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWhile war and the military have been recognized as being gendered sites, Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) are only rarely studied through a gender lens. Compared to functional, political-instrumental or ideational explanations with respect to the privatization of security, such a lens captures, however, the micro-dynamic and political processes of PMSCs’ boom. We show that gender is, first, constitutive of companies’ corporate identities as hero warriors and professional security experts. Second, it is relational, (re-)producing hierarchical power relations among and within PMSCs and with state security actors. Third, gender is a legitimizing factor helping PMSCs to establish themselves as acceptable security actors vis-à-vis others.; (AN 58939391) |
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Mercenaries at the movies: representations of soldiers of fortune in Mexico and the Congo in American and European cinema by Rich, Paul B. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p224-249, 26p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper examines cinematic representations of mercenaries from the era of silent movies to the 1980s. It argues that cinema has been selective in the choice of historical periods to depict mercenaries and soldiers of fortune, ignoring for the most part the centuries of European state building in which mercenaries played a significant role. Most mercenary films are anchored in the near present and the paper focuses on Mexico and the Congo as terrains of political breakdown and external intervention. Since the 1950s, a range of films depict mercenaries in these terrains seeking money, adventure, and the thrills of killing, and the paper examines mercenary movies through the character structures of hero, anti-hero and villain. These three structures have shaped the portrayal of mercenaries in westerns and war movies as well as action and sci fi movies, where they have become hardened in the last two decades into range of stock stereotypes; (AN 58939399) |
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Contractors or robots? Future warfare between privatization and automation by Calcara, Antonio. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p250-271, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTContemporary warfare is increasingly shaped by the complex relationship between the privatization of security and technologically driven automation. On the one hand, there is a growing tendency to employ private military and security companies for a range of military support tasks. On the other hand, the growing automation of security technologies is bound to make war less manpower intensive. Combat systems will have much more autonomy and humans will be working more closely with machines than they do today. The article provides an original analysis on the interplay between the privatization of security tasks and technologically driven automation and investigates their impact on the defence industry and the armed forces. These two sets of actors are arguably among the most impacted by the multi-faceted relations between privatization and automation. Technological progress creates the need for contractors to maintain and operate platforms that militaries do not have expertise to run. However, technologically driven automation - often developed in value chains far removed from the military-industrial pipeline - might also replace private contractors in non-core security tasks. The possibility to employ automated and autonomous systems will hence impact on the already delicate balance between private contractors and publicly-funded armed forces.; (AN 58939400) |
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The rise of cybersecurity warriors? by Weiss, Moritz. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p272-293, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe increasing demand for cybersecurity has been met by a global supply, namely, a rapidly growing market of private companies that offer their services worldwide. Cybersecurity firms develop both defensive (e.g. protection of own networks) and offensive innovations (e.g. development of zero days), whereby they provide operational capacities and expertise to overstrained states. Yet, there is hardly any systematic knowledge of these new cybersecurity warriors to date. Who are they, and how can we differentiate them? This contribution to the special issue seeks to give an initial overview of the coordination between public and private actors in cyberspace. I thus explore these new private security forces by mapping the emerging market for these goods and services. The analysis develops a generic typology from a newly generated data set of almost one hundred companies. As a result of this stock-taking exercise, I suggest how to theorize public-private coordination as network relationships in order to provide a number of preliminary insights into the rise of this ‘brave new industry’ and to point out critical implications for the future of private security forces.; (AN 58939403) |
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Concluding comments by Cusumano, Eugenio; Kinsey, Christopher. Small Wars and Insurgencies, February 2022, Vol. 33 Issue: Number 1-2 p294-312, 19p; (AN 58939392) |
Southeast European and Black Sea Studies
Volume 21, no. 3, July 2021
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1. |
Foreign aid during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Turkey by Güngör, Buğra. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p337-352, 16p; Abstract: ABSTRACTTurkey provided medical aid to more than 70 countries during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. This article explains the distribution of Turkish medical aid across countries relying on a novel dataset which draws on online news published by Turkey’s state-run news agency and a pro-government news outlet between February 1stand July 31st, 2020. The findings show that receiving Turkish medical aid is extensively related to the determinants underlying Turkey’s foreign aid policy. In particular, recipient countries’ historical ties to the Ottoman Empire, their level of imports from Turkey, and their needs based on the state of their general health system are seen to be significant predictors of receiving Turkish medical supplies during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding partial evidence of cultural similarity, Turkic identity is a predictor of receiving medical aid, whereas Islamic affinity does not have a significant association. Therefore, I find that Turkey has adopted a selective strategy in response to an indiscriminately damaging crisis while keeping a majority of the elements of its foreign aid repertoire in play.; (AN 57824727) |
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2. |
Outbreak of war memories? Historical analogies of the 1990s wars in discourses about the coronavirus pandemic in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia by Banjeglav, Tamara; Moll, Nicolas. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p353-372, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe article examines how historical analogies and collective memories of the 1990s wars figured in public discussions during the first wave of the coronavirus crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The research is based on the analysis of political speeches, media articles and social networks posts, examining the presence – or absence – of war analogies in these sources in the first period of the coronavirus pandemic, from mid-March 2020 to mid-May 2020. The article examines in which ways historical analogies referring to the 1990s wars were used during the coronavirus pandemic in two societies which have a recent war experience. By analysing to what extent and in which ways analogies to the war were used in political and societal discourses in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, this article adds to the existing literature on the use of historical analogies by focusing on the use of war analogies in societies where the war is not an abstract reference, but a recent, lived experience.; (AN 57824719) |
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‘Pockets of efficiency’ in a low capacity state: dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania by Dumitrescu, Lucian. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p373-391, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe article brings forward the case of Romania’s low capacity state and the troubles it has run into in its attempt to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to avoid essentialization, the article addresses the question of the public health system, which mirrors Romania’s low capacity state. The article argues that, due to a dearth of resources, the public health system has had a hard time implementing the ‘test, trace, isolate strategy’. States that have effectively implemented such a strategy have been successful in their attempt to curb the community spread of coronavirus. Also, the article seeks to demonstrate that even in a low capacity state, one may run into ‘pockets of efficiency’, that is, public institutions where quality management coexists with neopatrimonial practices. In order to illuminate the existence of such ‘pockets of efficiency’, the article makes a comparison between public hospitals turned into COVID-19 hotspots by poor management. And public hospitals where sound management has kept the SARS-CoV-2 virus at bay. Considering that informality usually takes precedence over formality in low capacity states, the article seeks to find an explanation for the occurrence of ‘pockets of efficiency’ in a prevalent neopatrimonial milieu.; (AN 57824721) |
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Defence spending, burden-sharing and strategy in NATO’s Black Sea littoral states: domestic, regional, and international systemic factors by Becker, Jordan. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p393-413, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe allocation of scarce resources is a grand strategic question – burden-sharing behaviour has clear effects on states’ ability to contribute to collective defence. Both NATO and the European Union encourage members not just to spend more on defence, but to focus those expenditures on equipment modernization and shared operational requirements. After NATO allies formally pledged to improve burden-sharing along these lines in 2014, and EU members followed in 2016, transatlantic debates on defence spending have become increasingly tense, particularly since 2017. What actually drives states’ choices to allocate resources to shared defence priorities? I operationalize transatlantic burden-sharing in line with NATO’s ‘Cash, Capabilities, and Contributions’ approach for a mixed-methods analysis of the burden-sharing behaviour of NATO’s Black Sea littoral states – Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. Using a multi-method analytical approach, I find that national and particularly regional political economies drive burden-sharing choices more than geostrategy, at least in the current strategic environment.; (AN 57824724) |
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5. |
Can China promote stability in the Black Sea Region? by Sanders, Deborah. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p415-436, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTChina has become an increasingly important actor in the Black Sea Region (BSR), and this looks set to continue in the future. Beijing has actively engaged with all of the Black Sea states and has looked to invest largely, but not exclusively, in ports and infrastructure projects as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This article examines Beijing’s growing influence in the Black Sea and explores the effect this will have on the region. It will be argued that China’s engagement is seen by some of the littoral states as an important way of balancing Russian influence in the region and Beijing’s presence is likely to lead to a recalibration of Russian behaviour in the BSR. Chinese engagement in the Black Sea might therefore serve as a force for stability or at least encourage the continuation of the status quo, by limiting Russian revanchism, as Moscow will be increasingly sensitive to Beijing’s interest and investments.; (AN 57824725) |
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6. |
Turkish foreign aid to Northern Cyprus: a mother’s blessing or curse? by Ekici, Tufan; Özdemir, Yonca. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p437-455, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper talks about the impact of Turkish aid on the macroeconomic development of Northern Cyprus. Since the physical division of the island of Cyprus in 1974, Turkey has been sending considerable financial aid to the de-facto state in its northern part, but the impact of this aid on local economics and politics has been controversial. We show that foreign aid has not been directly relevant for economic growth of Northern Cyprus. We suggest that persistence of aid, despite its negative impacts, can be explained by Turkey’s geopolitical interests on the island.; (AN 57824723) |
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7. |
Nationalistic education and its colourful role in intergroup prejudice reduction: lessons from Albania by Peshkopia, Ridvan; Giakoumis, Konstantinos. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p457-480, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTContributors to the education-as-enlightenment approach maintain that education helps to create less prejudicial individuals. This conclusion, emanating mainly from data collected in western democracies that apply multicultural education might not apply to countries where education’s primary goal is the establishment of a sense of national unity and belonging. On the one hand, nationalist education could reduce prejudices against groups not targeted by the ethnonationalist narrative – e.g. through positive comments about them or by not mentioning them at all. On the other hand, education might produce more prejudice towards groups targeted as the hostile Other through a nation-building narrative. We test this argument with a simple random sample of a cellphone public opinion survey collected in Albania in 2015. By framing our analysis inside the intergroup contact theory, we build two sets of models, the first explaining respondents’ prejudice levels towards Greeks and the second explaining respondents’ prejudice levels towards homosexuals. We found that more education predicted respondents’ higher prejudice levels towards Greeks, a group targeted by the Albanian ethnonationalist narrative as the hostile Other, whereas it did not significantly affect prejudices towards homosexuals.; (AN 57824722) |
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8. |
Evaluating the relationship between marginalization and participation in undeclared work: lessons from Bosnia and Herzegovina by Williams, Colin C.; Efendic, Adnan. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p481-499, 19p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper tests competing hypotheses on the relationship between marginalization and participation in undeclared work. The ‘marginalization’ thesis views undeclared work as conducted primarily by marginalized populations among which young, unemployed and economically fragile people dominate. A competing ‘reinforcement’ thesis argues that undeclared work is conducted disproportionately by those in declared jobs and thus that the undeclared economy reinforces, rather than reduces, the inequalities produced by the declared economy. To evaluate who engages in undeclared work and to test these competing theses, data is reported from a 2015 survey of 6,021 randomly selected adult respondents in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Reporting the marginal effects of a Probit regression analysis, the finding is that marginalized groups (the unemployed, younger age groups, those with fewer years in formal education, lower-income households, rural populations and those from poorer regions) are all significantly more likely to participate in undeclared work. The implications for theory and policy are discussed, along with the limitations of the study and future research required.; (AN 57824716) |
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9. |
Mother Teresa: the saint and her nation by Peshkopia, Ridvan. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p501-502, 2p; (AN 57824718) |
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10. |
Venizelos: the making of a Greek statesman, 1864-1914 by Veremis, Thanos M.. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p503-504, 2p; (AN 57824720) |
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11. |
Sovereignty suspended: building the so-called state by Kyris, George. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, July 2021, Vol. 21 Issue: Number 3 p505-506, 2p; (AN 57824717) |
Strategic Analysis
Volume 45, no. 4, July 2021
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1. |
India and the Geopolitics of UNSC Permanent Membership by Kaura, Vinay; Singh, Chakravarti. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p271-285, 15p; Abstract: AbstractThe United Nations completed 75 years of its existence in 2020. The last 75 years have been a roller coaster ride for this global institution mandated to maintain peace. However, the UN has received widespread criticism for not reforming its various institutions, particularly the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The G-4 nations which includes India, have led the call for accelerating the long-awaited reform process. This article analyses the history of the UNSC reform process with a particular focus on India’s attempts to become a permanent member to achieve its global ambitions, as well as the major hurdles along the way.; (AN 58124084) |
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2. |
The Formation of the Indian Diaspora by Kumar, T.K. Manoj; Pillay, D. P. K.. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p286-306, 21p; Abstract: AbstractThe Indian Diaspora is one of the world’s largest overseas groupings.The Diaspora is considered India's 30thstate with over 30 million overseas Indians. This article outlines the main strands of its formation, from the first movement of indentured workers and subsequent phases of migration of skilled professionals to the West and of workers to the Persian Gulf. They remain the single–largest contributor of foreign exchange and development in the country. Understanding its formation is an essential step for studying the Diaspora and engaging with it. This article aims to do that.; (AN 58124089) |
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3. |
Transformation of Middle Powers with the Decline of World Hegemony: The Case of Turkey by Sucu, Ali Emre; Safranchuk, Ivan; Nesmashnyi, Alexander; Iskandarov, Qosimsho. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p307-320, 14p; Abstract: AbstractTurkey is widely considered to be a middle power in the international system. The authors apply hierarchical, behavioural and ideational approaches to the foreign policy of Turkey: each of the three unveils specific features of Turkey as a middle power in the post-hegemonic world. It is argued that the behavioural approach to studying middle powers should be updated to distinguish ‘benign’ and ‘revisionist’ middle power strategies. The factors contributing to Turkey’s transition from being a benign middle power to being a revisionist one are holistically investigated.; (AN 58124081) |
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4. |
A Multi-level Approach to Vietnam Foreign Policy: From Security Preoccupation to Middle Power Role by Tinh, Le Dinh. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p321-335, 15p; Abstract: AbstractPrior to 1995 when Vietnam joined ASEAN and normalized relationship with the United States, the overriding concern was security as could be well explained by realism. Vietnam has made several critical, strategic moves since 1995 and by 2030 the country may be able to act internationally as an emerging middle power. Taking a multi-level approach and empirical evidences of 35 years of Doi Moi (renovation), this article attempts to clarify as to how Vietnam has been in a better position to ensure the security goal by embarking on an ambitious development strategy and expanding its international role.; (AN 58124087) |
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5. |
Refugees, Border and Identities: Rights and Habitat in East and Northeast India by Pattanaik, Smruti S.. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p336-338, 3p; (AN 58124080) |
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The Idea of Civilization and the Making of the Global Order by Ramakrishnan, A. K.. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p339-341, 3p; (AN 58124085) |
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7. |
Full Spectrum: India’s Wars 1972-2020 by Pillay, Divakaran Padma Kumar. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p342-344, 3p; (AN 58124088) |
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8. |
Turkey and China: Political, Economic, and Strategic Aspects of the Relationship by Quamar, Md. Muddassir. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p345-347, 3p; (AN 58124090) |
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Afghanistan: What Everyone Needs to Know by Asatryan, Georgi. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p348-350, 3p; (AN 58124083) |
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10. |
Infrastructure of Injustice: State and Politics in Manipur and Northeast India by Shimray, Ramachan A.. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p351-352, 2p; (AN 58124082) |
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The Indo-Soviet Treaty by Subrahmanyam, K.. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p353-361, 9p; (AN 58124086) |
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12. |
Soviet ABM and US-USSR Strategic Debate by Wariavwalla, Bharat. Strategic Analysis, July 2021, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p362-374, 13p; (AN 58124091) |
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
Volume 45, no. 4, April 2022
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1. |
The Industrial Organization of the Syrian Civil War by Kapstein, Ethan B.; Ribar, David. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, April 2022, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p231-257, 27p; Abstract: AbstractThe Syrian Civil War represents an extreme outlier in terms of the number of insurgent groups which have been engaged in the fighting. These groups have also been remarkably persistent over time, partly due to the fact that rebel in-fighting has been relatively contained. They have also targeted civilians far less than the Syrian Army. These stylized facts run counter to much of the existing literature on multi-party civil wars, which has emphasized the influence of the balance of power on group dynamics. In this article we instead draw upon balance of threat theory, along with insights from the economics of industrial organization, to understand insurgent behavior in the Syrian Civil War, based on a newly compiled dataset of rebel violence. Our research suggests that conflict scholars need to account for factors beyond the balance of power if they are to adequately explain inter-rebel dynamics.; (AN 59204453) |
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2. |
Opportunity Structures, Rebel Governance, and Disputed Leadership: The Taliban’s Upsurge in Kunduz Province, Afghanistan, 2011–2015 by Terpstra, Niels. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, April 2022, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p258-284, 27p; Abstract: AbstractEven though Kunduz province in Afghanistan was under relatively firm government control in 2011, the Taliban insurgency was able to consolidate its power throughout the province in the years that followed and to temporarily take-over the provincial capital of Kunduz city for the first time since the U.S.-led intervention in 2001. Based on field research in 2013 and 2016, I argue that the Taliban’s upsurge took place because of a favorable opportunity structure for the insurgency that coincided with sufficient organizational capacities and a sense of urgency among the Taliban’s senior leadership.; (AN 59204455) |
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Theorizing Territorial Withdrawal: The Need to Think Strategically by Pinfold, Rob Geist; Smith, M. L. R.. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, April 2022, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p285-310, 26p; Abstract: AbstractThis article examines what factors cause states to withdraw from foreign territorial interventions. Scholarly analyses of withdrawal are rare, whilst within the broader research area of territorial conflict, studies are often dichotomized into neorealist or constructivist-inspired works, emphasizing a select few variables and one level of analysis alone. We argue these excessive simplifications of international politics lack utility for understanding territorial withdrawal. Instead, we employ the principles of strategic theory informed by a Clausewitzian paradigm, and construct a framework of three “arenas of bargaining,” spanning multiple variable-types and levels of analysis, to explain territorial withdrawal. In so doing, the analysis delineates a comprehensible and novel theoretical framework for understanding an under-researched policy problem.; (AN 59204452) |
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4. |
Reexamining the Four Waves of Modern Terrorism: A Territorial Interpretation by Radil, Steven M.; Castan Pinos, Jaume. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, April 2022, Vol. 45 Issue: Number 4 p311-330, 20p; Abstract: AbstractTerritory is a persistent concern in international politics but is unevenly explored in the terrorism literature. We argue that territory has salience for terrorist actors and apply our argument to Rapoport's influential “four waves” thesis of the modern history of terrorism. By examining the key ideologies and groups associated with each historical era, we find that territory was a crucial element to each wave even when it took on different forms. We conclude by calling for additional concern for territory in terrorism studies, which promises to yield new insights into pressing questions.; (AN 59204454) |
Survival
Volume 64, no. 1, January 2022
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Results |
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1. |
The Ukraine Crisis: Why and What Now? by Hunter, Robert. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p7-28, 22p; Abstract: AbstractHaving rebuilt its military, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and has now positioned more than 100,000 troops on its borders, challenging NATO’s supposed encirclement of Russia and its military capabilities in Central Europe. The West has responded with threats of unprecedented sanctions. This crisis stems from the Soviet Union’s collapse and the West’s effort to create a ‘Europe whole and free’ and at peace. The West failed to convince Russia to play a positive role in Europe and to help it do so. NATO declared that Ukraine and Georgia, on Russia’s borders, would someday become Alliance members. Nevertheless, the US and NATO are conducting serious diplomacy with Russia. Confidence-building measures, including on conventional forces, are the best alternative to confrontation. A new cold war will benefit no one, Russia least of all.; (AN 58856584) |
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2. |
Hope Deferred: Russia from 1991 to 2021 by Braithwaite, Rodric. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p29-44, 16p; Abstract: AbstractThe Soviet Union was formally replaced by the Russian Federation on 25 December 1991. Americans felt they had won the Cold War. Russians felt an angry sense of humiliation. The Soviet potential for collapse had become visible after Josef Stalin died in 1953. It was not corrected by the Soviet leadership nor picked up by Western governments, and it was masked by Soviet military and international success. But eventually the Soviet leadership could no longer ignore the growing crisis. They appointed Mikhail Gorbachev to find a remedy. He failed. His eventual successor, Vladimir Putin, used force to restore Russia’s role abroad, but ran an increasingly brutal and corrupt regime at home. Russians had hoped that Russia might become prosperous and stable, on good terms with its neighbours. Though that hope was much diminished by Christmas 2021, a flicker nevertheless remained.; (AN 58856586) |
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3. |
Geopolitical Forecasting and Actionable Intelligence by Lustick, Ian S.. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p51-56, 6p; Abstract: AbstractIn geopolitics, even rough probabilistic forecasts are difficult to make. Scenario design, table-top simulations and structured discussions are heuristic activities that focus the attention of analysts and increase policymaker satisfaction with intelligence products, but their usefulness is not based on confidence that forecasts are accurate. Traumatised by 9/11 and encouraged by advances in social science, computerised data collection and artificial intelligence, the US government has greatly increased investments in reliable geopolitical forecasting. Despite progress by using computerised data processing, sophisticated statistical methods and machine learning, the results have so far been of limited practical assistance. Forecasters must not only provide credible probability judgements but also show the causal pathways underlying them to enable policymakers to mitigate harms and exploit opportunities. Building that capacity means enhancing the role of social scientists in the design and testing of computer simulation and other forecasting techniques.; (AN 58856587) |
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4. |
War with China: Five Scenarios by Pettyjohn, Stacie L.. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p57-66, 10p; Abstract: AbstractThe US military rightly focuses on a Taiwan-invasion scenario for force planning, but to understand the odds of Sino-American war a range of scenarios must be examined. Consideration of five scenarios suggests that none of the wars that China might intentionally start are very attractive from Beijing’s perspective, providing the United States and its allies with time to strengthen deterrence. The greatest risk of a Sino-American conflict in the near term is inadvertent or accidental escalation caused by misperception or miscalculation. As the United States takes steps to bolster deterrence and reduce the risks of deliberate war, it must simultaneously put in place crisis-management mechanisms to prevent inadvertent or accidental escalation.; (AN 58856588) |
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5. |
National Security and Climate Change: The Attention It Deserves? by Sikorsky, Erin. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p67-73, 7p; Abstract: AbstractIn the past year, climate change and national security have received significant attention from policymakers in the United States and the international community. Despite high-level meetings and statements on the topic, however, climate change is not yet fully mainstreamed into policymakers’ national-security agendas, particularly in areas related to geopolitical competition and governance. Better integration of climate-related predictive capabilities into national-security planning and the development of an interdisciplinary, scientifically literate national-security workforce are needed to address this gap.; (AN 58856589) |
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6. |
Alliances and Nuclear Risk: Strengthening US Extended Deterrence by Frühling, Stephan; O’Neil, Andrew. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p77-98, 22p; Abstract: AbstractThere is a fundamental tension between the Biden administration’s stated intent to strengthen US alliances while at the same time reducing the role of US nuclear weapons. The credibility of extended-deterrence commitments – which in times of great-power conflict lie at the heart of US alliances – hinges on US allies and adversaries believing that Washington would resort to nuclear weapons to defend the core interests of its allies. A no-first-use or sole-purpose declaration would undermine deterrence and alliances by qualifying US security guarantees. The Biden administration and US allies should focus on coupling allied security to the threat of US nuclear use, to risks of inadvertent escalation for adversaries, and to the value of limited nuclear use in addressing conventional military imbalances in the Indo-Pacific. Forward-basing US nuclear forces in the region, where they are currently absent, is key to achieving all three of these aims.; (AN 58856590) |
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Disruptive Technologies and Nuclear Risks: What’s New and What Matters by Futter, Andrew. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p99-120, 22p; Abstract: AbstractHype and fear have arisen about how certain technological developments are impacting the current nuclear order. New weapons systems and support facilities, potential vulnerabilities and associated destabilising dynamics could all place considerable strain on the global nuclear balance and accompanying architecture. This article examines five disruptive dynamics, explains their intricacies and nuances, and puts them in political and strategic context. The nature of nuclear risk is changing (in many cases for the worse), and there are a number of pressures which could have significant negative implications for escalation, stability and order if left unchecked. But these phenomena remain fundamentally political, and there are political mechanisms which can help reduce risks. Accordingly, while the risks posed by disruptive technologies to the nuclear order are real and growing, they should not be insurmountable.; (AN 58856591) |
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Brief Notices Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 pe1-e13, 13p; (AN 58856585) |
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9. |
Geography Lessons: American Decline and the Challenge of Asia by Rubin, Barnett R.. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p121-130, 10p; Abstract: AbstractThe United States’ Pacific-centric perspective on Asia has kept it from fully appreciating the relative decline of US power in continental Asia west of China, which the US withdrawal from Afghanistan illuminates. During the 20-year US intervention there, the combined economies of the countries surrounding Afghanistan grew from five-sixths the size of the US economy to almost twice its size. China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative responds to genuine needs in the region. The United States’ Build Back Better World (B3W) programme appears insufficient to offset it. Since the US became a global power, it has not faced a peer competitor comparable to China. Washington needs to cooperate with Beijing on connectivity, climate security and regional security in Central and Northeast Asia, even while challenging it on Taiwan, the South China Sea, trade and human-rights issues.; (AN 58856592) |
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From 11 September to 6 January: A Vexingly Dotted Line by Stevenson, Jonathan. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p191-200, 10p; Abstract: AbstractTwo books examine the connection between the 11 September 2001 attacks and the 6 January 2021 insurrection in the United States. In Reign of Terror, Spencer Ackerman overreaches in arguing that 9/11 led directly to 6 January by impelling the Bush administration’s expansion and empowerment of the ‘Security State’, which encouraged government officials and the American public to embrace right-wing extremism and Donald Trump’s authoritarianism. Factors other than the ‘war on terror’ amply explain America’s sharp turn to the right and Trump’s ascendancy. In Subtle Tools, Karen Greenberg offers the more nuanced and credible argument that Trump and his inner circle simply used the degradation of language, ‘bureaucratic porousness’, reflexive secrecy and the rejection of precedent arising from the policy and statutory responses to 9/11 to stoke right-wing extremism and manipulate government security policy and institutions.; (AN 58856593) |
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Africa by Smith, Karen. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p201-207, 7p; Abstract: Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World, 1471 to the Second World WarHoward W. French. New York: Liveright Publishing Corporation, 2021. £25.00/$35.00. 499 pp.Cyril Ramaphosa: The Path to Power in South AfricaRay Hartley. London: C. Hurst & Co., 2018. £16.99. 238 pp.Regional Economic Communities and Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons from ECOWAS and IGADVictor Adetula, Redie Bereketeab and Cyril Obi, eds. Abingdon: Routledge, 2021. £120.00. 226 pp.Indigenous Discourses on Knowledge and Development in AfricaEdward Shizha and Ali A. Abdi, eds. Abingdon: Routledge, 2017. £125.00. 244 pp.An Emerging Africa in the Age of GlobalisationRobert Mudida. Abingdon: Routledge, 2021. £120.00. 150 pp.; (AN 58856594) |
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Russia and Eurasia by Stent, Angela. Survival, January 2022, Vol. 64 Issue: Number 1 p208-214, 7p; Abstract: Negotiating the New START TreatyRose Gottemoeller. Amherst, NY: Cambria Press, 2021. $39.99. 218 pp.We Shall Be Masters: Russian Pivots to East Asia from Peter the Great to PutinChris Miller. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021. £23.95/$29.95. 361 pp.Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet UnionVladislav M. Zubok. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2021. $35.00. 535 pp.Russia and the Right to Self-determination in the Post-Soviet SpaceJohannes Socher. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021. £80.00. 250 pp.Germany’s Russia Problem: The Struggle for Balance in EuropeJohn Lough. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2021. £20.00. 296 pp.; (AN 58856595) |
Terrorism and Political Violence
Volume 34, no. 1, January 2022
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Results |
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1. |
Maritime Piracy, Military Capacity, and Institutions in the Gulf of Guinea by Denton, Ginger L.; Harris, Jonathan R.. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p1-27, 27p; Abstract: ABSTRACTWest African security threats have become more frequent in recent years, most notably in the Gulf of Guinea. As increasing quantities of the world’s trade pass through the maritime domain, ship hijackings and other maritime criminal activities have garnered widespread attention from the international community. The International Maritime Bureau reports 785 piracy incidents have occurred in the region since 2000 and current models forecasting worldwide piracy trends have failed to accurately predict maritime crime in all of the West African states. The purpose of this article is to provide an analysis of piracy developments in the Gulf of Guinea. The authors argue that increased military capacity and anocratic regimes lead to increases in piracy while failed states are associated with a decline in such maritime crimes. Data from 2000 to 2016 is used to empirically test this claim. The analysis shows that a state’s military capacity has no impact on the prevalence of piracy events while institutional frameworks and regime type influence the degree and number of maritime attacks off the coast of West Africa. The results imply that institutionally strong and democratic regimes are less likely to experience piracy in the Gulf of Guinea than weak states or anocracies.; (AN 58889865) |
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2. |
A Philosophical and Historical Analysis of “Generation Identity”: Fascism, Online Media, and the European New Right by Richards, Imogen. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p28-47, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article analyzes ideological and organizational characteristics of the pan-European youth movement, “Generation Identity” (GI), through a philosophical and historical lens. With a synoptic perspective on existing and original research, it outlines an analysis of key GI literature as well as its ideological influences, activist behavior, and media strategies. This research reveals that, like other twentieth and twenty-first century examples of neo-fascism, the movement is syncretic and attempts to legitimize its political aims through reference to historical quasi- and proto-fascist cases, in combination with popular left and right-wing political ideals. A reflection on GI’s activist behavior, on the other hand, demonstrates that the movement is relatively unique in the field of current far-right politics; particularly in the extent to which it draws practical inspiration from the tactics and propagandizing strategies of contemporary left-wing movements. GI’s online presence, including its leaders’ promotion of gamification, also illustrates its distinctive appeal to young, relatively affluent, countercultural and digitally literate populations. Finally, while in many respects GI is characteristic of the “European New Right” (ENR), the analysis finds that its spokespersons’ various promotion of capitalism and commodification, including through their advocacy of international trade and sale of merchandise, diverges from the anti-capitalist philosophizing of contemporary ENR thinkers.; (AN 58889863) |
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Pathways toward Jihadism in Western Europe: An Empirical Exploration of a Comprehensive Model of Terrorist Radicalization by Pfundmair, Michaela; Aßmann, Elena; Kiver, Benjamin; Penzkofer, Maximilian; Scheuermeyer, Amelie; Sust, Larissa; Schmidt, Holger. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p48-70, 23p; Abstract: ABSTRACTIslamist terror is one of the most terrifying threats worldwide. However, there is no common model about the mechanisms underlying the complex process of radicalization and research is usually undermined by a lack of empirical data. Therefore, we aimed to compose a comprehensive model of radicalization, and test it empirically collecting and analyzing data on Islamist radicals in Western Europe. In Study 1, police professionals assessed seventy-five subjects under investigation for being in the process of radicalization. In Study 2, data from open source news articles about eighty six radical Muslims were evaluated by psychologists. Specific individual preconditions including young age, male gender, migration background, and biographical cuts were consistently found among radicals. Fueling the actual radicalization process, a gradual increase of individual, group and catalyst processes was observed from early (Study 1) to late stages of radicalization (Study 2). These included pursuing individual needs (transcendence, significance, self-esteem, control); processes in the course of a strong group commitment (group identification, prejudice, polarization, perceived group threat, collective emotions, informative influence); and cognitive adaptions to get increasingly comfortable with applying violence (desensitization, dehumanization). The current work may be a solid basis for further empirical investigations and for creating means of prevention and deradicalization.; (AN 58889866) |
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Alienation or Cooperation? British Muslims’ Attitudes to and Engagement in Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Extremism by Shanaah, Sadi. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p71-92, 22p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThe dominant academic narrative portrays British Muslim communities as alienated by counter-terrorism policies and consequently reluctant to cooperate with authorities by taking action against Islamist extremism. This article reassesses and nuances the “alienation narrative” with the use of unique data from three robust surveys of British Muslims. It finds that although a minority shows signs of alienation, most British Muslims are satisfied with and trust counter-terrorism policies as well as the government and the police. The level of willingness to take action against Islamist extremism is also high. The study confirms that aspects of alienation correlate with reduced willingness to take action against Islamist extremism, although they do not necessarily lead to disengagement.; (AN 58889872) |
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Militarized Law Enforcement Forces, State Capacity and Terrorism by Kirisci, Mustafa. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p93-112, 20p; Abstract: ABSTRACTGendarmerie forces are actively deployed by many states in the world to fight terrorism, but their impact on terrorism has not been explored. This study fills this gap in the literature and examines the effect that having gendarmerie forces has on terrorist activities in a state. I discuss competing arguments about the relationship between having these forces and terror incidents and also address the conditioning effect of bureaucratic capacity on this relationship. By constructing a time series cross-sectional data that identifies the countries having gendarmeries in given years, I test these arguments, and the results of the empirical analyses suggest that states having gendarmerie forces experience more terrorist violence than those without gendarmeries. However, the number of terror incidents in states with gendarmeries decreases as these states have greater bureaucratic capacity. The results have implications in terms of the role of militarized policing on terrorism and countering terrorism.; (AN 58889862) |
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What Do Closed Source Data Tell Us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note by Gill, Paul; Corner, Emily; McKee, Amy; Hitchen, Paul; Betley, Paul. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p113-130, 18p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis article contributes to the growing body of knowledge on lone-actor terrorism with the incorporation of closed-source data. The analyses presented investigate the antecedent behaviors of U.K.-based lone-actor terrorists leading up to their planning or conducting a terrorist event. The results suggest that prior to their attack or arrest the vast majority of lone-actor terrorists each demonstrated elements concerning (a) their grievance, (b) an escalation in their intent to act, (c) gaining capability—both psychologically and technically and (d) attack planning. The results also disaggregate our understanding of lone-actor terrorists in two ways. First, we compare the behaviors of the jihadist actors to those of the extreme-right. Second, we visualize Borum’s (2012) continuums of loneness, direction, and motivation. Collectively the results provide insight into the threat assessment and management of potential lone actors.; (AN 58889856) |
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Temporal Dynamics in Covert Networks: A Case Study of the Structure behind the Paris and Brussels Attacks by Remmers, Jasmijn M.. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p131-154, 24p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the network behind the Paris and Brussels attacks and related plots that were organized in the name of Islamic State. It answers the questions how the network was structured and how it developed over time. The database used contains highly reliable information from the judiciary and the intelligence community. It is therefore among the first to allow for statistical analysis of the typology of a covert network, while also being reliable and detailed enough to admit for an analysis of the covert network chronological development. The findings are that the network was centralized and thus vulnerable to targeted attacks against the most central nodes. The network developed in three phases: (1) construction of local cells, predominantly based on pre-existing ties; (2) travel to Islamic State and merger with a larger network; (3) consolidation before carrying out an attack. In addition, it is found that (1) most network analyses of covert networks understate the importance of peripheral nodes, and (2) that analyzing the final configuration of the network alone does not necessarily lead to correct conclusions, as it ignores the underlying structures of pre-existing networks.; (AN 58889859) |
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‘Cooking the Meal of Terror’ Manipulative Strategies in Terrorist Discourse: A Critical Discourse Analysis of ISIS Statements by El-Nashar, Mohamed; Nayef, Heba. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p155-175, 21p; Abstract: ABSTRACTThis paper linguistically investigates terrorist discursive strategies designed to manipulate recipients’ minds into accepting, even embracing, certain ideologies. Though extensive research has been done on manipulative discourse used by journalists and politicians, examining the same discourse used by terrorists received comparatively scant attention. Under Critical Discourse Analysis, we employ a framework of analysis of ISIS discursive tools of manipulation, drawing on Reisigl and Wodak’s (2009) and Wodak’s (2011) discursive strategies, qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing (17) ISIS statements released between 2014 and 2016. We explore the discursive tools ISIS has characteristically used to manipulate its audience and legitimate and defend its actions. The aim is that once terrorist narrative is dissected from a different approach, such effort will be helpful in creating counter-narratives meant to reduce terrorism and vitiate its arguments. Emphasis will be laid on covert vs. overt manipulation, metaphorical dehumanization and metonymic depersonalization. We find that the data contained manipulative tools such as Captatio benevolentiaeand volitive modality that are employed to project a positive image about ISIS.; (AN 58889864) |
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U.S. Homegrown Political Violence and Terrorism by Shaffer, Ryan. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p176-180, 5p; (AN 58889874) |
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Homegrown: Identity and Difference in the American War on Terror by Denton, Donald D.. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p181-182, 2p; (AN 58889861) |
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Shaykh Yusuf al-Qaradawi: Spiritual Mentor of Wasati Salafism by Zimmerman, John C.. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p183-184, 2p; (AN 58889860) |
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South Sudan’s Injustice System. Law and Activism on the Frontline by Szabó, Zsolt. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p185-186, 2p; (AN 58889867) |
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The Forgotten Terrorist: Sirhan Sirhan and the Assassination of Robert F. Kennedy by Wentling, Sonja. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p187-188, 2p; (AN 58889869) |
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Portugal’s Forgotten Overseas Wars in the 20th Century by Besenyő, János. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p189-194, 6p; (AN 58889858) |
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The Investigator: Demons of the Balkan War by Frary, Lucien. Terrorism and Political Violence, January 2022, Vol. 34 Issue: Number 1 p195-196, 2p; (AN 58889868) |
Washington Quarterly
Volume 44, no. 4, October 2021
World Policy Journal
Volume 32, no. 4, December 2015
World Politics
Volume 74, no. 1, January 2022
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Expressive Power of Anti-Violence Legislation by Htun, Mala; Jensenius, Francesca R.. World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 p1-36, 36p; Abstract: abstractWe know more about why laws on violence against women (vaw) were adopted than about how much and in what ways these laws affect society. The authors argue that even weakly enforced laws can contribute to positive social change. They theorize the expressive power of vawlegislation, and present evidence for a cautiously optimistic assessment of current trends on violence against women and the ways that vawlaws affect social norms. Focusing on a time of major legal change related to vawin Mexico, this article explores trends in behavior and attitudes related to violence by analyzing four waves of the National Survey on the Dynamics of Household Relations (endireh), which include detailed interviews with thousands of Mexican women. The authors find that over this period, the share of women experiencing intimate-partner abuse declined, attitudes condoning violence shifted, reporting rates rose, and most women learned about legislation to protect their rights. These changes are consistent with the authors’ expectations about the expressive power of anti-violence legislation.; (AN 58831228) |
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Control, Coercion, and Cooptation by Liu, Shelley X.. World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 p37-76, 40p; Abstract: AbstractThis article examines how rebels govern after winning a civil war. During war, both sides—rebels and their rivals—form ties with civilians to facilitate governance and to establish control. To consolidate power after war, the new rebel government engages in control through its ties in its wartime strongholds, through coercion in rival strongholds where rivals retain ties, and through cooptation by deploying loyal bureaucrats to oversee development in unsecured terrain where its ties are weak. These strategies help to explain subnational differences in postwar development. The author analyzes Zimbabwe's Liberation War (1972–1979) and its postwar politics (1980–1987) using a difference-in-differences identification strategy that leverages large-scale education reforms. Quantitative results show that development increased most quickly in unsecured terrain and least quickly in rival strongholds. Qualitative evidence from archival and interview data confirms the theorized logic. The findings deepen understanding of transitions from conflict to peace and offer important insights about how wartime experiences affect postwar politics.; (AN 58831224) |
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Buying Brokers by Hicken, Allen; Aspinall, Edward; Weiss, Meredith L.; Muhtadi, Burhanuddin. World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 p77-120, 44p; Abstract: AbstractStudies of electoral clientelism—the contingent exchange of material benefits for electoral support—frequently presume the presence of strong parties. Parties facilitate monitoring and enforcement of vote buying and allow brokers to identify core voters for turnout buying. Where money fuels campaigns but elections center around candidates, not parties, how do candidates pitch electoral handouts? The authors analyze candidates’ distribution of cash during an Indonesian election. Drawing upon varied data, including surveys of voters and brokers, candidates’ cash-distribution lists, and focus-group discussions, they find heavy spending but little evidence of vote buying or turnout buying. Instead, candidates buy brokers. With little loyalty or party brand to draw on, candidates seek to establish credibility with well-networked brokers, who then protect their turf with token payments for their own presumed bloc of voters. The authors find little evidence of monitoring of either voter or broker behavior, which is consistent with their argument that these payments are noncontingent.; (AN 58831226) |
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WPO volume 74 issue 1 Cover and Back matter World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 pb1-b4, 4p; (AN 58831223) |
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WPO volume 74 issue 1 Cover and Front matter World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 pf1-f3, 3p; (AN 58831225) |
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Government Policies, New Voter Coalitions, and the Emergence of Ethnic Dimension in Party Systems by Mor, Maayan. World Politics, January 2022, Vol. 74 Issue: Number 1 p121-166, 46p; Abstract: AbstractConventional theories of ethnic politics argue that political entrepreneurs form ethnic parties where there is ethnic diversity. Yet empirical research finds that diversity is a weak predictor for the success of ethnic parties. When does ethnicity become a major element of party competition? Scholars have explained the emergence of an ethnic dimension in party systems as the result of institutions, mass organizations, and elite initiatives. But these factors can evolve in response to an emerging ethnic coalition of voters. The author advances a new theory: ethnic cleavages emerge when voters seek to form a parliamentary opposition to government policies that create grievances along ethnic identities. The theory is tested on rare cases of government policies in Prussia between 1848 and 1874 that aggrieved Catholics but were not based on existing policies or initiated by entrepreneurs to encourage ethnic competition. Using process tracing, case comparisons, and statistical analysis of electoral returns, the author shows that Catholics voted together when aggrieved by policies, regardless of the actions of political entrepreneurs. In contrast, when policies were neutral to Catholics, the Catholic party dissolved.; (AN 58831227) |