Russia’s Climate Gamble : The Pursuit and Contradiction of Its Arctic Ambitions
Center for Strategic and International Studies (US).
The Russian government has positioned itself as a beneficiary of climate change and has welcomed a rapidly transforming Arctic that is warming three times faster than the rest of the world and becoming increasingly accessible. It has had extraordinary success with its Yamal LNG megaproject and seeks to build on this with new projects like Vostok Oil and ambitious plans for the Northern Sea Route. At the same time, it expands and deepens its Arctic military footprint with new bases and capabilities and an uptick in exercises and missile tests. This study attempts to identify the most significant climate impacts across the Russian Arctic to understand the broader implications for Russia’s economy, internal political dynamics, and security posture. With this information, this study sought to predict whether Russia’s considerable economic and military ambitions in the Arctic would succeed and, based on this analysis, tease out meaningful geostrategic implications. This research determined that the impacts of climate change - coupled with global, especially European, momentum toward decarbonization and energy transition - makes prospects for Russian success in the Arctic increasingly unfavorable. Key decisionmakers in Moscow are unlikely to be deterred by this fact, however, and Russia’s economic and military development of the region will continue in the near term.
Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance : Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures
Rand Corporation (US)
The eight recognized Arctic states - Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States - have long cooperated in the Arctic region, even when their respective interests, especially those between Russia and the United States, have clashed on other matters. They have done so because each state perceives that it benefits from the current state of cooperation, which occurs through a set of international, regional, and subregional governance mechanisms. But conditions in the Arctic are evolving - driven by such factors as climate change, economics, and geopolitics - and thus its governance mechanisms must also evolve in order to mitigate new risks before they potentially escalate into conflict. What are these risks ? How should existing governance mechanisms evolve to mitigate those risks ? In this report, researchers propose and implement an adaptive, four-stage approach to identify potential Arctic conflict catalysts; determine, confirm, and prioritize the catalysts that cannot be solved through existing Arctic governance mechanisms; and identify potential governance mechanisms that can evolve to mitigate identified risks. The researchers conclude that, to decrease the risk of unraveling cooperation by 2030, Arctic stakeholders should work toward resolving gaps in Arctic governance in three ways : improving currently limited dialogue and transparency on military issues, updating and providing new capabilities to implement existing governance agreements, and enabling more inclusivity in Arctic-relevant decisionmaking without challenging the sovereignty of Arctic states.
Geopolitique des poles : vers une appropriation des espaces polaires ?
by
Lasserre, Frederic, 1967-
Les regions polaires sont engagees dans un processus de changements climatiques majeurs qui font redouter une cristallisation des rivalites pour l'acces aux richesses minieres et energetiques, ainsi qu'aux nouvelles routes maritimes degagees par la fonte de la banquise. Ainsi, serions-nous a l'aube d'une nouvelle Guerre froide, voire d'un conflit arme. Or, une analyse precise de la situation et des acteurs en presence montre que ces scenarios-catastrophes sont grandement exageres. Plutot que l'affirmation de la souverainete individuelle des Etats, on assiste en effet a la mise en place d'une cooperation au travers de traites internationaux specifiques et d'instances de dialogue. Car l'enjeu est avant tout de gerer les impacts devastateurs des changements climatiques au regard desquels la question de savoir a qui appartiennent les poles semble bien derisoire...
Arctic Yearbook : 2020
L'Arctique : a l'epreuve de la mondialisation et du rechauffement climatique
by
Loizzo, Clara
Si l'Arctique est souvent percu comme un bout du monde glace, peuple de rares autochtones et d'ours polaires fameliques, son etude revele qu'il concentre bon nombre d'enjeux auxquels sont ou seront confrontees toutes les regions de la planete. Enjeux environnementaux, car l'Arctique est menace par le rechauffement climatique, et les consequences sur son ecosysteme y sont plus radicales qu'ailleurs. Enjeux sociaux et politiques a travers les revendications post-coloniales des populations autochtones, et qui sont particulierement riches de debats et d'innovations en termes de gouvernance. Enjeux economiques autour d'une region dont les nombreuses ressources (halieutiques, minieres, energetiques) attirent les convoitises dans un contexte de mondialisation des echanges et d'epuisement de certaines reserves. Enjeux geopolitiques, enfin, pour ce 'nouveau theatre de la puissance' qu'est l'Arctique, zone charniere entre Etats-Unis, Europe et Russie, et objet d'interet croissant de la part de la Chine. Cet ouvrage presente l'ensemble des defis poses a ce territoire meconnu, et pourtant veritable laboratoire de l'avenir de la Terre.
Arctic Narratives and Political Values : Arctic States, China and NATO
by
Allan, Iona Mackenzie
NATO's Brussels Summit and the Arctic [electronic resource]
by
Regehr, Ernie
The European Union and the Arctic
by
Liu, Nengye, ed.
This book brings together academics from a range of disciplines to discuss the EU's potential roles in shaping Arctic governance. It is divided into three parts. The first part examines the EU's current Arctic policy framework. The second part focuses on the EU's engagement with Arctic governance at the regional level and encompasses the EU's engagement with the so-called Arctic Five (five coastal States of the Arctic Ocean), providing examples of some of those relationships. The third part takes a sectoral approach, analysing the EU's potential contribution to regulation of key human activities in the Arctic, including shipping, fisheries, oil and gas operations, and marine mammals.
Géopolitique de l'Arctique
by
Garcin, Thierry
L'Arctique est devenu un veritable enjeu des relations internationales. C'est un theatre qui s'ouvre et un nouvel objet de convoitise. Mais c'est aussi un monde complexe, que la grande presse a beaucoup simplifie. Raison de plus pour identifier les grands dossiers et evaluer les logiques de puissance a l'oeuvre, a moyen et a long termes. Dix chapitres, clairement subdivises, identifient les questions cles. Vingt encadres precisent des points essentiels. Un cahier en couleurs central de seize cartes familiarise le lecteur avec cette nouvelle problematique.
Russia in the Arctic
by
Blank, Stephen J., ed.
US Army War College. Strategic Studies Institute (US)
The Arctic is the newest sphere of international competition for energy and security access. It pits Russia against the other Arctic states. These essays fully explore and analyze what is at stake here and what Moscow has done to increase its capability and influence in the Arctic.