Analyzing the Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Risk Posed by a Mature Fusion Technology and EconomyAuthor(s): Diesendorf, Mark; Roser, David; Washington, Haydn
In: Energies, Vol. 16, Issue 3, p. 1123, February 2023
Nuclear fusion is widely promoted as the ultimate environmentally friendly solution to the world's energy demands. However, the medium/long-term nuclear weapons proliferation risks from a hypothetical fusion economy are rarely considered. Using risk assessment tools, this paper undertakes a trial scoping of proliferation hazards arising from fusion energy technologies, focused on the implications of a global 'Mature Fusion Economy' (MFE). In the medium term, an MFE could (1) facilitate construction of large, efficient, and reliable nuclear arsenals by producing tritium and the fissile materials Plutonium-239 and Uranium-233; and (2) erode the barriers constraining nuclear weapons acquisition by facilitating the spread of nuclear knowledge, technologies, and materials. Given the potential scale of a global MFE, management via monitoring of proliferation and diplomacy could become unworkable. Therefore, policy development must include independent and comprehensive expert and informed community assessment of such fusion-enhanced risks, transparent oversight by the nuclear disarmament community, and systematic analysis of the issues raised in this paper and their implications for fusion into the very long-term future.